Don't Buy Rigetti Computing Stock Until This Happens

Rigetti Computing faces a weak near-term revenue outlook after reporting $10.8 million in 2024 revenue but just $5.2 million year-to-date in 2025, and announcing two October 9‑qubit system sales totaling $5.7 million that it does not expect to book until H1 2026 — raising the prospect that 2025 sales will be materially below 2024 levels. Sales over the last 12 months are down 43% from 2022 while annual losses have roughly quintupled to more than $350 million, and S&P Global Market Intelligence analysts see no path to profitability through at least 2030. Institutional holders including American Assets, Vanguard and BlackRock together own nearly 20% of shares, leaving upside conditional on a clear reversal in sales growth; absent that recovery the author considers the stock a sell.

Analysis

Rigetti reported $10.8 million in revenue for 2024 but has posted only $5.2 million year-to-date in 2025, and it announced two October system sales totaling $5.7 million that it does not expect to recognize until H1 2026. That timing means 2025 sales will likely be materially below 2024 levels and 2026 growth depends on the company actually booking the announced order revenues plus any additional contracts.

Revenue momentum has deteriorated: sales over the last 12 months are down 43% from 2022 while annual losses have roughly quintupled to over $350 million, and S&P Global Market Intelligence projects no profitability through at least 2030. Institutional investors including American Assets, Vanguard and BlackRock collectively owning nearly 20% of shares suggests some faith in the technology, but ownership alone does not mitigate the near-term revenue gap or the enlarged loss profile.

The immediate investment case hinges on a concrete reversal of the sales slide — additional large bookings and earlier revenue recognition — otherwise the stock faces continued pressure from cash burn and investor skepticism. The author recommends a sell until Rigetti demonstrably returns to revenue growth and narrows its path to sustainability.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid adding to positions until Rigetti books and recognizes the October sales in H1 2026 and announces further sizeable orders,
• If already long, trim exposure or hedge because 2025 revenue appears set to fall below 2024 and losses exceed $350 million,
• Monitor quarterly order announcements, revenue recognition timing, and any guidance on cash burn or financing needs as primary catalysts that should change the investment view,
• Speculative investors may consider a small, size-limited position only if prepared for a long timeline to profitability and high execution risk given analyst projections to 2030