Press releases and reports - Public opinion in the context of Russia's attempts to plunge Ukraine into darkness and cold: results of a survey conducted on January 23-29, 2026

A KIIS national CATI survey of 1,003 Ukrainian adults (Jan 23-29, 2026) shows 52% categorically reject transferring the entire Donbas to Russian control for Western security guarantees while 40% would accept it; results are stable versus mid-Jan. Only 20% expect the war to end by mid-2026 and 65% say they are prepared to endure the war as long as necessary; 88% believe Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy sector aim to force surrender and 9% relocated due to heating/electricity issues. Support for strikes on Russian territory remains high (90%), increasingly beyond strictly military targets, and 66% are optimistic Ukraine will be a prosperous EU member in 10 years — signalling persistent societal resilience but continued geopolitical and energy-sector risk for investors.

Analysis

Market structure: The KIIS survey signals a politically resilient Ukraine — >50% reject territorial concessions and 90% back strikes on Russia — which increases the probability of prolonged conflict rather than a quick peace-for-territory settlement. Winners: defense contractors, NATO logistics and equipment suppliers, LNG exporters and EU gas-storage/terminal operators; losers: Ukrainian domestic utilities, short‑term sovereign credit and some European utilities exposed to gas supply shocks. Expect sustained demand for defense spending (multi-year), higher risk premia for Ukraine/EM credit and structurally firmer European gas prices into next winter.

Risk assessment: Immediate (days) risk is volatility spikes in energy, FX and sovereign CDS around any large Russian energy strike; short-term (weeks–months) risk is an energy-price rerating if TTF stays >€40–50/MWh or EU storage falls <90% before refill season. Tail risks include NATO-Russia escalation (low probability, catastrophic) or a collapse in Western aid (raises default probability sharply). Hidden dependencies: US aid calendar, EU storage refill rates, insurance/reinsurance pricing and winter weather; any adverse move in those drives second‑order contagion into European credit and supply chains.

Trade implications: Position into a 6–12 month trade horizon: overweight aerospace & defense (e.g., ITA or LMT/RTX) and LNG/terminal owners (CHMI/LNG exposures), underweight or hedge European integrated utilities (ENEL.MI, EOAN.DE) and Ukraine-equity exposure; use options to express convexity because event risk will spike implied vol. Reassess at catalyst points: major aid votes (30–90 days), EU storage check (monthly) and next tranche of Russian strikes.

Contrarian angles: Consensus assumes short-term Ukrainian fatigue => negotiated settlement; survey shows resilience, so markets may be underpricing prolonged conflict scenario and defence upside. Conversely, if winter proves mild and EU storage refills quickly, energy-premia could collapse (overdone risk-off). Historical parallel: post‑2014 defence capex and sanctions cycles — initial shock then durable uplift in defense suppliers and energy diversification capex; beware supply-chain inflation and longer lead times that compress margins in industrial suppliers.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long in US defense exposure via ITA (iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF) or a 1–1.5% each split into LMT and RTX; enter within 2 weeks, add on a 5–10% pullback, take profit or re‑evaluate at 3–6 months or after any major US defense-spending setback (>30 days delay in authorization).
• Take a 1–1.5% short/hedge position in European integrated utilities (primary targets ENEL.MI and EOAN.DE) via outright short or buy 3‑month put spreads sized to 1% notional; enter if TTF stays >€45/MWh for 7 consecutive trading days or EU storage <92% at monthly check; cover if the short position gains 15% or after 3 months.
• Deploy a 0.5–1% opportunistic allocation to Ukraine sovereign paper or Ukraine CDS protection only if on‑screen yields exceed 18% and 5y CDS >800bps; use liquid sovereign bonds or CDS to capture high carry, exit on a 30% price rally or if CDS drops below 600bps.
• Buy volatility via options: purchase 6–12 month call spreads (15–25% OTM) on LMT or ITA sized to 0.5–1% notional as leveraged directional exposure to defense upside; alternatively buy 1–2% notional 3‑month call spread on Cheniere Energy (LNG) or liquid US LNG names if European gas TTF >€50/MWh — unwind on a 30% move in underlying or after EU storage recovery confirmation.