Tanzania’s descent into repression is a stark warning of how fast Africa’s progress can be eroded | Kenneth Mohammed

Africa’s strong macro fundamentals — a booming population (projected to exceed 2.5bn by mid‑century), large mineral and hydrocarbon reserves and heavy infrastructure and green‑energy investment that the African Development Bank says could lift combined GDP to $4tn by 2030 — are being undermined by a marked deterioration in governance and security that raises material risks for investors. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation reports the first decline in African governance scores in a decade and nearly 30 countries have seen coups, insurgencies or democratic backsliding since 2020; high‑profile flashpoints include Sudan (more than 9m displaced amid fighting between SAF and the RSF), eastern DRC (M23), and a sharp authoritarian turn in Tanzania after the disputed 2025 election (official result 97.6% amid internet blackouts, arrests, allegations of mass killings and reports of up to 3,000 deaths, which the government denies). For institutional investors and allocators, the takeaway is to recalibrate political, security and rights‑related risk in African exposure, engage on governance and rule‑of‑law conditionality, and monitor calls for UN/AU/SADC investigations that could affect sovereign stability, asset valuations and the viability of long‑term projects.

Analysis

Africa’s macro case remains compelling on the data the article cites: a population projected to exceed 2.5 billion by mid‑century and an African Development Bank forecast that combined GDP could reach $4tn by 2030 driven by green‑energy investment, urbanisation and digital innovation; the AfDB’s “High 5s” have mobilised billions in financing. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation reports the first decline in African governance scores in a decade and nearly 30 countries have experienced coups, insurgencies or democratic backsliding since 2020, creating a rising baseline of political risk. Tanzania’s 2025 election is a salient example—an official 97.6% victory declared amid internet blackouts, arrests, military deployments, disputed death tolls ranging from “hundreds” to claims of as many as 3,000 and allegations of mass graves, which the government denies. Ongoing conflicts in Sudan (more than 9 million displaced in fighting between SAF and the RSF) and renewed violence in eastern DRC (M23) underline how insecurity and contests over minerals and trade routes are eroding the institutional foundations required to realise the continent’s growth story, raising the prospect of sovereign and project‑level repricing, delays and reputational risk for investors.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reprice and hedge political and security risk across African exposures and consider reducing concentrated positions in jurisdictions showing acute governance deterioration such as Tanzania, Sudan and eastern DRC until independent probes and stability indicators advance
• Retain selective exposure to structural themes (green energy, minerals, infrastructure) only via projects with multilateral guarantees or strong contractual protections (AfDB/IFC backing) to mitigate sovereign and operational risk
• Adopt trigger‑based monitoring tied to the Mo Ibrahim governance index, UN/AU/SADC investigation outcomes, reports of internet shutdowns, mass‑casualty evidence and permit or offtake delays, with pre‑defined re‑underwriting or exit criteria
• Engage portfolio companies and managers on enhanced human‑rights due diligence, contingency planning and reputational mitigation (insurance, escrowed cashflows, evacuation/security protocols) to limit operational disruption and legal exposure