Here's How Much Upside Is Left in SpaceX Stock at Its IPO Price, According to an Analyst

SpaceX is set to debut at $135 per share, implying a $1.77 trillion valuation and raising $75 billion in what would be the largest IPO in history. Morningstar’s bull case values the stock at $154 per share, but that assumes Starship scales by 2028 and orbital AI data centers reach $225 billion in annual revenue by 2035. The article is cautiously optimistic on long-term technology potential, but emphasizes execution risk and limited upside at the IPO price.

Analysis

The market is implicitly pricing SpaceX as if Starship hits industrial-scale reliability on schedule, but the real bottleneck is not engineering alone — it is launch cadence, capital intensity, and downstream customer adoption. If the company needs to launch thousands of times per year to unlock orbital compute economics, then the first-order question is whether hyperscalers will commit capex before there is proof of stable cost curves; that creates a classic “technology works, economics don’t clear” gap. In that scenario, the option value is real but the equity multiple is vulnerable because the terminal value depends on a narrow execution window over the next 24-36 months.

The more interesting second-order effect is on adjacent public comps, not SpaceX itself. A credible orbital-compute roadmap would be incrementally bullish for AI infrastructure demand, but it would also pressure terrestrial data-center power, land, and cooling supply chains if even a small fraction of workloads migrate upward. That is a latent headwind for conventional utility-scale infrastructure names and a medium-term tailwind for high-efficiency compute, launch-adjacent components, and thermal management vendors; the market is still underpricing the supply-chain reordering that would follow if launch costs fall meaningfully.

The contrarian view is that the bullish case may be too dependent on a single platform transition. If Starship slips by even 12-18 months, the whole stack — satellite broadband expansion, in-orbit AI, and cadence-driven unit economics — gets pushed out together, which can compress the valuation faster than the business can compound. In contrast, if execution is merely “good enough” rather than extraordinary, the upside from here is likely much smaller than the promotional narrative suggests, because the current price already discounts a very high probability of near-flawless delivery.

For public-market expression, the cleaner trade is not to chase the IPO halo but to buy optionality in the enabling layer and fade the overextended narrative where execution risk is highest. The key timing signal is whether Starship exits testing and sustains repeat launches over the next two reporting cycles; until then, the setup is more about sentiment than fundamentals. Any weakness after the first post-IPO lockup or a delay in commercialization milestones should create a better asymmetry than the debut itself.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid chasing the IPO at debut; wait 1-2 quarters for evidence of repeat launch cadence and customer pre-commitments before underwriting the in-orbit compute story.
• Pair trade: long AI infrastructure enablers and thermal/power suppliers, short the most sentiment-sensitive terrestrial data-center proxies if orbital compute narrative gains traction over the next 6-12 months.
• Use any post-IPO strength to initiate a small bearish options structure on the IPO name itself: buy 3-6 month puts or put spreads to monetize execution-delay risk with defined downside.
• If Starship milestones slip, add to the short/underweight on a 6-12 month horizon; the main risk/reward asymmetry is that valuation is being paid today for a multi-year operating proof point.
• Maintain a watchlist of launch-adjacent hardware and AI infrastructure names for a relative-value long basket; if launch costs compress materially, these are the more durable second-order beneficiaries than the headline IPO.