Wheat Bulls Rally on Monday

Wheat futures rallied across U.S. contracts Monday—front-month Chicago SRW gained 17¢, KC HRW rose 13–14¢ and Minneapolis spring added 5–9¢, with Dec and Mar CBOT closes at $5.44¼ and $5.58½ respectively—on stronger export demand. USDA weekly inspections were 246,533 MT for the week to Nov. 13 (down 15.4% week-on-week but up 25.1% year-on-year), led by shipments to Japan (87,493 MT), Indonesia (56,620 MT) and Mexico (48,105 MT), while marketing-year exports since June 1 total 12.363 MMT, 19.3% above last year, underpinning the rally. USDA did not issue its weekly Crop Progress report as agencies return from the government shutdown, removing a near-term data point that could affect supply outlooks.

Analysis

Wheat futures rallied across U.S. contracts on Monday with Chicago SRW up 17 cents in the front months, KC HRW up 13–14 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat up 5–9 cents; Dec 2025 CBOT closed at $5.44 1/4 and Mar 2026 at $5.58 1/2. KCBT Dec/Mar closed at $5.28 3/4 and $5.44 3/4 respectively, while MGEX Dec/Mar closed at $5.74 3/4 and $5.81 1/4, reflecting broad-based gains across contract types.

USDA weekly inspections totaled 246,533 MT (9.06 mbu) for the week ending Nov. 13, a 15.41% decline versus the prior week but a 25.06% increase year-over-year, with Japan (87,493 MT), Indonesia (56,620 MT) and Mexico (48,105 MT) as top destinations. Marketing-year exports since June 1 are 12.363 MMT (454.26 mbu), 19.3% above last year, which appears to be underpinning the recent price strength.

USDA did not release the weekly Crop Progress report as agencies return from the government shutdown, removing a near-term supply-data point and increasing the potential for short-term volatility. Given the juxtaposition of strong year-to-date exports and a week-on-week inspection drop, near-term price direction will likely hinge on the timing and content of the next Crop Progress release and subsequent inspection flows.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider modest tactical long exposure to wheat futures or a wheat ETF such as WEAT to capture near-term upside given the recent front-month gains and marketing-year exports that are 19.3% above last year
• Monitor USDA weekly inspections and the upcoming Crop Progress report closely—current inspections were 246,533 MT (-15.41% w/w, +25.06% y/y) and the delayed report from the shutdown is a key catalyst that could reverse prices
• Employ disciplined risk management (position sizing, hedges or stop limits) because the missing Crop Progress data and the week-on-week inspection decline increase the probability of short-term volatility despite stronger year-to-date demand