Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures jump as court blocks Trump tariffs, Nvidia earnings impress

US stock futures rose following a US trade court ruling against some of Trump's tariffs and Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report, which, despite warnings about chip restrictions and a miss on adjusted EPS, impressed Wall Street. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang criticized US chip curbs, stating they are spurring innovation in China and weakening America's position, while the company anticipates an $8 billion sales loss next quarter due to these restrictions. Investors are also awaiting earnings from Best Buy (BBY) and Costco (COST) and a revision of Q1 US GDP.

Analysis

US stock futures registered significant gains, with Dow Jones futures (YM=F) up 1.0%, and S&P 500 (ES=F) and Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) futures both advancing 1.6%. This upward momentum appears linked to a US Court of International Trade ruling that blocked certain Trump administration tariffs, deeming them illegal, though this decision remains appealable by the administration. Concurrently, Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report, while mixed, positively influenced market sentiment. Nvidia surpassed revenue expectations but fell short on adjusted earnings per share, attributing the miss to the US government's prohibition on H20 chip sales to China. The company issued a significant warning, anticipating an $8 billion reduction in sales next quarter due to these restrictions. Despite this guidance and CEO Jensen Huang's critical commentary on US chip curbs—stating they stimulate Chinese innovation and potentially weaken America's AI market position in China—Nvidia's shares rose in after-hours trading. This reaction suggests Wall Street may be focusing on underlying AI demand or has priced in the China-related headwinds, bolstering optimism that Big Tech can navigate prevailing trade policies. Market participants now await retail sector earnings from Best Buy (BBY) and Costco (COST), and key economic indicators such as weekly jobless claims and the revised Q1 US GDP, particularly relevant after the initial estimate showed the first economic contraction in three years at the start of 2025.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Evaluate Nvidia's (NVDA) valuation carefully, weighing the market's positive reaction and strong underlying AI demand against the substantial $8 billion projected quarterly sales impact from China chip restrictions and stated risks of ceding long-term market share.
• Consider the partial unwinding of tariff risks following the trade court's decision as a near-term positive for equities, but maintain vigilance for potential appeals and the broader, ongoing impact of trade tensions on global supply chains and corporate costs.
• Closely monitor upcoming retail earnings from Best Buy (BBY) and Costco (COST), along with the revised Q1 US GDP figures, to gauge consumer resilience and the broader economic trajectory in light of recent contraction signals and persistent trade policy uncertainties.