WRAPUP BP and Total deepen commitments to US with major projects

European energy majors BP and TotalEnergies are significantly deepening their commitments to U.S. hydrocarbon assets. BP approved a $5 billion offshore oil field in the Gulf of Mexico, the Tiber-Guadalupe project, targeting 80,000 boed from 2030, as it strategically pivots to increase U.S. production to over 1 million boed. Concurrently, TotalEnergies acquired a 49% stake in Continental Resources' Oklahoma gas fields, projected to yield 26,000 boed by 2030, to secure low-cost gas for its substantial U.S. LNG exports, particularly to Asian markets. These investments highlight a strategic focus on U.S. oil and gas resources, impacting future production and global energy supply dynamics.

Analysis

European energy majors BP and TotalEnergies are materially increasing their long-term commitments to U.S. hydrocarbon production through significant, distinct strategic investments. BP has approved the $5 billion Tiber-Guadalupe offshore oil project in the Gulf of Mexico, which is expected to add 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) starting in 2030 from an estimated 350 million boe of recoverable resources. This investment is a cornerstone of BP's strategic pivot away from renewables and toward hydrocarbons, with a stated goal for U.S. production to exceed 1 million boed by the end of the decade, representing nearly half of its global target. Concurrently, TotalEnergies is acquiring a 49% stake in Continental Resources' onshore gas fields in Oklahoma. This move is designed to vertically integrate its value chain by securing low-cost gas supply, projected at 26,000 boed by 2030, to support its position as the largest buyer and exporter of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). The transaction directly addresses the current imbalance where TotalEnergies' U.S. production (3.8% of its global total) has been minimal compared to its massive LNG offtake.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view BP's $5 billion investment as a direct execution of its revised hydrocarbon-focused strategy, positioning its U.S. operations as the primary driver of production growth through 2030.
• TotalEnergies' acquisition of U.S. gas assets is a strategic enhancement of its LNG business, likely improving margin security and de-risking its supply chain for contracted deliveries to global markets.
• These parallel investments by major European players signal a strong, long-term bullish outlook on U.S. hydrocarbon assets, suggesting portfolios should be reviewed for exposure to companies with significant and growing U.S. upstream operations.