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Cotton Rallying on Monday Morning

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Cotton Rallying on Monday Morning

Cotton futures are trading higher Monday morning, recouping Friday's losses, despite previous headwinds from a stronger dollar and falling crude oil. This rebound follows robust export data for the week ending June 13, which showed old crop bookings at a three-week high of 189,016 RB, driven by Chinese demand, and export shipments reaching a four-week high. However, new crop sales saw a slight decline, and significant unshipped sales of 3.25 million RB persist with only seven weeks remaining in the marketing year, while ICE certified stocks increased to 136,656 bales.

Analysis

Cotton futures are trading significantly higher on Monday, with contracts up 69 to 333 points, largely recovering from Friday's decline which saw prices fall 18 to 266 points, influenced by a stronger US dollar and weaker crude oil. This upward movement is primarily driven by robust export data for the week ending June 13. Old crop cotton bookings reached a three-week high of 189,016 RB, with China accounting for a substantial 82,200 RB. Export shipments also saw a four-week high at 197,905 RB, marking a 6.03% increase week-over-week. However, new crop sales slipped to 111,799 RB from the previous week's marketing year high, and a significant 3.25 million RB in unshipped sales remains with only seven weeks left in the marketing year, posing a potential overhang. ICE certified cotton stocks increased by 469 bales to 136,656 bales on June 20, suggesting a build-up in available supply. While the Cotlook A Index remained unchanged at 82.70 cents/lb, the USDA Average World Price (AWP) declined by 67 points to 56.65 cents/lb, indicating underlying price pressure despite the current futures rally.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

mixed

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0.10

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Key Decisions for Investors

  • Investors should closely monitor the sustainability of export demand, particularly from key buyers like China, against increasing ICE certified stocks and the substantial volume of unshipped sales, which could signal future supply pressure
  • Pay attention to the impact of First Notice Day for July contracts and the divergence in performance between old and new crop sales as indicators of market sentiment and forward demand
  • Remain vigilant on macroeconomic factors such as the US dollar index and crude oil prices, as these external variables have demonstrated their capacity to influence cotton futures significantly