Wheat Rallying Double Digits on Friday

Wheat futures are up across all three exchanges, with Chicago SRW leading gains, driven by strong USDA Export Sales data showing 2025/26 commitments at 5.191 MMT, the largest for the first week of the marketing year since 2019/20 and above the 5-year average. Additionally, French soft wheat crop ratings improved slightly to 70% good/excellent, according to FranceAgriMer estimates.

Analysis

Wheat futures are concluding the week with notable gains across all three U.S. exchanges: Chicago SRW futures are up 16 to 17 cents, Kansas City HRW contracts have risen by 15 to 16 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat futures show an increase of 10 to 11 cents intra-day. A primary driver for this upward price movement is the robust USDA Export Sales data, which indicates 2025/26 marketing year commitments at 5.191 million metric tons (MMT). This volume marks the largest for the first week of a marketing year since 2019/20 and accounts for 26.4% of the USDA's recently updated projection for 2025/26, exceeding the 5-year average of 24% for this period and signaling strong early international demand. Separately, the French soft wheat crop condition saw a minor improvement, with FranceAgriMer rating 70% as good to excellent, a 1-point increase from the previous week, suggesting stable supply prospects from a key European exporter. The overall market sentiment, reflected as strongly positive with a score of 0.75, and the bullish tone are consistent with these strong export figures.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should note the current bullish sentiment in the wheat market, underpinned by significant early export commitments for the 2025/26 marketing year which may support prices in the near term.
• Monitoring upcoming USDA export sales reports and global crop condition updates, particularly from major producing regions, will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of this price strength and demand outlook.
• Consider that the current export sales pace for 2025/26, exceeding both recent historical highs for this period and the 5-year average percentage of USDA projections, could signal expectations of a tighter market balance for that future marketing year if this demand trend solidifies.