First Camp surpasses SEK 2 billion in annual revenues

First Camp Group reported that trailing twelve‑month revenues surpassed SEK 2.0 billion (management cites SEK 2.1 billion) following rapid expansion since 2017 to 91 destinations across six countries and more than 70 acquisitions. Growth was driven by record operational performance in 2025, new products (e.g., Motorhome Pass), higher guest satisfaction, and a record CAPEX program of nearly 30 projects to increase capacity; the group now operates Scandinavia’s largest camping booking platform with ~20,000 pitches and >3,500 cabins. The company emphasizes a buy‑and‑build strategy (expansions into Finland, Germany and Switzerland) and reinvests all surplus into the business, positioning it for further scale and organic growth.

Analysis

Market structure: First Camp’s milestone crystallises a shift toward scaled, asset-light booking platforms + asset-rich niche operators. Winners are platform players and multi-site leisure operators that can monetise loyalty and upsell cabins (estimate 5–15% RevPAR upside potential into peak seasons); losers are fragmented independents and legacy city hotels that lack flexible inventory. Cross-asset: modest upward pressure on regional corporate credit spreads for small leisure owners, mild FX tailwinds for SEK revenues when hedged into EUR/CHF.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include land-use regulation in Nordics/DACH, extreme-weather seasonality, and integration/leverage fatigue from roll-up M&A; a pandemic-like demand shock would be a >30% revenue hit scenario. Time horizons: immediate (days) = limited market movement; short-term (weeks–months) = booking cadence ahead of summer and Q1 reports; long-term (quarters–years) = network effects from loyalty and capex converting into higher margin. Hidden dependencies: seasonal occupancy concentration, booking-platform tech retention, and local planning approvals for CAPEX.

Trade implications: Tilt portfolios toward experiential travel exposure (platforms and listed European leisure operators) and away from commoditised hotel REITs. Use size-controlled directional and relative-value trades into the next 3–12 months around summer-booking catalysts; employ call spreads to lever upside while capping premium outlay. Monitor RevPAR and guest-satisfaction KPIs as primary trackers (trigger thresholds at -10% or +10% yoy).

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates near-term margin pressure from rapid acquisition integration and heavy CAPEX (2025 reinvestment = near-term EBITDA dilution). Historical parallels: holiday-park roll-ups in 2010s delivered long payback (3–5 years) despite revenue growth; unintended consequence = overbuilding cabins that dilute yield—cut positions if occupancy <60% or RevPAR growth <5% over two quarters.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Airbnb (ABNB) to capture secular demand for non‑hotel, experiential stays; plan a 3–6 month horizon into summer booking season, take profits if ABNB rallies >20% or cut at a 12% loss.
• Initiate a 1–2% tactical long in Booking Holdings (BKNG) and a simultaneous 1–2% short in European hotel REITs (example: PANDX.ST / PNDX.ST or large regional REIT proxy) as a pair trade over 6–12 months—expect relative outperformance if alternative stays/packaged travel continue to gain share; unwind if RevPAR differential narrows below 5% yoy.
• Buy a small, cost-controlled options position: ABNB 3‑month 10% OTM call spread (size = 0.5–1% portfolio risk) to lever upside into peak-booking windows while limiting premium exposure; close into 10%+ IV compression or at 50% of max profit.
• Reduce direct exposure to listed European hotel REITs and small leisure credits by ~30% if two-quarter RevPAR growth falls below +5% yoy or occupancy drops under 60%; redeploy into travel/platform names and select Nordic leisure operators with integrated loyalty and distribution.