Billionaire Ken Griffin Buys 2 Quantum Computing Stocks Up 3,750% and 1,770% Since 2023. Wall Street Says They Are Headed Higher.

Citadel added small stakes in Rigetti Computing (51,700 shares) and D-Wave Quantum (122,600 shares) during Q3, while Wall Street median targets imply ~42% upside for Rigetti (median $40 vs. $28) and ~48% for D-Wave (median $40 vs. $27) as of Dec. 6. Rigetti touts vertical integration and a multi-chip roadmap but trades at an extreme P/S of ~1,080, and D-Wave — which focuses on quantum annealing — reported Q3 revenue of $3.7M and a non-GAAP net loss of $18.1M while diluting shares (outstanding +31% YTD, +117% two-year), trading at ~325x sales. The piece stresses that both stocks are highly overvalued relative to near-term market utility and growth forecasts and warns the shares could fall 80–90%, recommending very small positions or waiting for lower entry points.

Analysis

Market structure: The immediate winners are incumbent cloud and AI-infrastructure providers (NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL) that will capture quantum use-cases and revenue; direct pure-play winners are limited because Grand View/consensus implies a quantum market growing ~21% PA to 2030 and remaining orders-of-magnitude smaller than AI. Losers are speculative pure-plays RGTI (P/S ~1,080) and QBTS (P/S ~325) whose current pricing presumes decades-to-deliver commercialization; that disconnect concentrates downside risk and pressures small-cap tech indices and liquidity in that segment.

Risk assessment: Short-term (days–weeks) tail risks include retail squeezes and large option gamma spikes; medium-term (3–12 months) risks are rapid dilution (share count +31% YTD for QBTS) and missed revenue inflection points; long-term (1–5 years) binary outcomes are either meaningful commercial traction or obsolescence. Hidden dependencies: continued government/defense contracts, cloud partnerships (AWS/GCP/Azure) and IP litigation; catalysts that can reverse the trade are >$50m ARR contracts, major M&A, or demonstrable fault-tolerant progress.

Trade implications: Tactical direct plays: defined-risk bearish exposure on RGTI and QBTS via 6–12 month put spreads sized 1–2% portfolio each, targeting 50–80% downside; pair trades: short RGTI vs long NVDA (0.75–1.5% long) to capture rotation to AI infra. Options: buy put spreads (20–40% OTM long leg, fund with further OTM short) to cap cost; exit/trim on 50% realized move or material positive catalyst within 12 months. Reallocate 3–5% from speculative quantum into NVDA/MSFT/AMZN and enterprise software (PLTR) for defensive growth.

Contrarian angles: Consensus misses that strategic acquirers or defense budgets could re-rate names quickly, producing sharp one-off rallies — not steady recoveries. Reaction appears overdone for a small subset of outcomes: require objective triggers to flip views (stop short only if share count growth <5% YoY and revenue growth >50% YoY or announced cloud contract >$50m within 12 months). Historical parallels (2000 tech froth) warn that durable capital losses are likely absent clear fundamental inflection.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a defined-risk 6–12 month bearish position on RGTI sized 1–2% of portfolio via put spread (buy 20–40% OTM put, sell farther OTM to fund) targeting 50–80% downside over 12–36 months; set a hard stop-loss at 25% adverse move.
• Establish a similar 1–2% put-spread position on QBTS (6–12 month, 20–40% OTM long leg) or a direct short if margin permits; target coverage of dilution events—add to position if share count growth >15% q/q or revenue misses guidance by >10%.
• Initiate a relative-value pair: short RGTI notional vs long NVDA equal to 0.75–1.5% portfolio exposure (long via 6–12 month call spread to limit cost); rebalance if the spread narrows by 30% or if NVDA underperforms by >15% in 3 months.
• Reduce aggregate exposure to speculative quantum/early-stage deep-tech by 3–5% and redeploy into NVDA, MSFT, or AMZN (buy 6–12 month call spreads) and PLTR for defensive software exposure; target a post-trade portfolio tilt where AI infra + cloud = +3–6% overweight.
• Monitor three binary flip-triggers over the next 12 months and close/trim shorts if any occur: (A) major cloud contract >$50m ARR announced, (B) share-count growth decelerates to <5% YoY, (C) QoQ revenue growth >50%; otherwise keep bearish positions active for 12–36 months.