Earnings Preview: Nike (NKE) Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline

Nike is expected to report December 18 quarter results showing EPS of $0.37 (-52.6% y/y) on revenues of $12.15 billion (-1.7% y/y); however, the Zacks Most Accurate Estimate sits below consensus, producing a negative Earnings ESP of -3.79% and a Zacks Rank of #3, which together make an EPS beat less likely despite Nike’s recent streak of four straight beats (including a +81% surprise last quarter). The near-term stock reaction will hinge on the actual print versus consensus and management’s commentary on demand and margins, so investors should weigh the diminished beat probability against the potential for guidance-driven moves.

Analysis

Nike is forecast to report fiscal-quarter results on December 18, 2025 with consensus EPS of $0.37, a 52.6% year-over-year decline, and revenues of $12.15 billion, down 1.7% year-over-year; the release is positioned to move the stock materially depending on whether results materially beat or miss these expectations. The Zacks consensus EPS has been revised 1.8% higher over the last 30 days, but the Most Accurate Estimate sits below consensus, producing a negative Earnings ESP of -3.79% and indicating analysts have become recently more bearish on the quarter.

The stock carries a Zacks Rank of #3, and Zacks’ research notes that the Earnings ESP model is only strongly predictive when ESP is positive and paired with a top Zacks Rank; the current negative ESP and mid-rank therefore reduce confidence in a beat despite Nike’s recent track record of four consecutive quarterly EPS beats, including a +81.48% surprise in the last reported quarter. Historical surprise history provides balanced context but does not overcome the current signal mix.

Practical implications are that near-term upside will likely require both an EPS beat and constructive management commentary on demand and margins, while a miss or cautious guidance would likely drive downside given lowered beat probability and market caution. Investors should prioritize the print and conference-call tone, watch revenue and margin dynamics relative to consensus, and expect elevated volatility around the release.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain a neutral-to-conservative stance into the December 18 print given the negative Earnings ESP (-3.79%) and Zacks Rank #3, and avoid adding significant net-long exposure ahead of the report
• Consider hedging existing positions (for example, protective puts or tight collars) or trimming position size to limit downside risk from a potential miss or cautious guidance
• If Nike reports an EPS beat accompanied by positive management commentary on demand and margins, consider adding to exposure on confirmation of improving trends, otherwise wait for post-earnings stability before increasing allocation
• Monitor the earnings call for forward-looking comments on revenue drivers and margin sensitivity and use any clear upgrades/downgrades in analyst estimates after the release as triggers for rebalancing