Up to 5,000 Cubans fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, Reuters reports

A U.S. State Department cable, cited by Reuters, indicates that up to 5,000 Cuban fighters are now participating in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, positioning Cuba as the second-largest foreign troop contributor to Moscow after North Korea. This significant increase from earlier reports highlights Russia's sustained recruitment of foreign mercenaries and Cuba's deepening alignment with Moscow, which the U.S. is leveraging in its campaign against lifting the long-standing Cuban embargo. The development underscores persistent geopolitical tensions and Russia's ongoing military resourcefulness, potentially influencing international relations and future sanctions considerations.

Analysis

Up to 5,000 Cubans fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, Reuters reports Up to 5,000 Cuban fighters are actively participating in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported Oct. 5, citing an internal U.S. State Department cable seen by the outlet. "After North Korea, Cuba is the largest contributor of foreign troops to Russia's aggression, with an estimated 1,000 to 5,000 Cubans fighting in Ukraine," the cable said. The U.S. circulated an unclassified cable, sharing details about Cuba's support for Russia's war in Ukraine, as part of its campaign to counter a United Nations resolution calling for Washington to lift its embargo on the Caribbean nation, which has been in place since 1960. The Oct. 2 unclassified cable, sent to dozens of U.S. missions, directs diplomats to urge foreign governments to oppose the resolution, which has passed the U.N. General Assembly every year since 1992. While the U.N. resolution holds symbolic value, only the U.S. Congress can ultimately lift the decades-long embargo. According to Reuters, the U.S. State Department declined to provide additional details on the Cuban fighters, but said it was aware of reports that they were serving alongside Russian troops. Moscow has been recruiting foreign fighters from countries such as Nepal, Somalia, India, and Cuba since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022. Last year, Bloomberg reported that Russia was offering generous payments and the promise of citizenship to Cuban fighters, despite Havana's attempts to curb recruitment. At the time, the number of Cuban recruits was reported to be in the low hundreds. That figure has since grown to the thousands, as Ukrainian officials have recently warned U.S. lawmakers about an uptick in Russia's recruitment of Cuban mercenaries. Cuba and Russia have maintained close ties since the Cold War. Most recently, Cuba joined the Russian-led BRICS group as a partner country in October 2024. A U.S. State Department cable reported by Reuters reveals a significant escalation in Cuba's support for Russia's war in Ukraine, with an estimated 1,000 to 5,000 Cuban nationals now fighting alongside Russian forces. This figure, a substantial increase from the low hundreds reported last year, positions Cuba as the second-largest foreign troop contributor after North Korea and underscores the effectiveness of Moscow's recruitment drive offering generous payments and citizenship. The development is being actively used by U.S. diplomats to argue against a U.N. resolution calling for the end of the U.S. embargo on Cuba, thereby hardening geopolitical lines. This military and political alignment, further solidified by Cuba's recent entry as a partner country in the BRICS group, signals a strengthening of Russia's international coalition and indicates the conflict's potential for protraction, sustained by a steady influx of foreign mercenaries.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should increase their monitoring of geopolitical risk, as the growing involvement of state-sponsored foreign fighters could lead to new, broader sanctions and prolong the conflict's impact on global markets.
• Any investment thesis based on a potential lifting of the U.S. embargo on Cuba now carries significantly higher risk, as this development provides Washington with strong justification to maintain its long-standing policy.
• Consider that Russia's ability to replenish its forces with foreign recruits may lead to a protracted war of attrition, potentially providing a sustained tailwind for the defense sector and creating continued volatility in energy and agricultural commodity markets.
• Re-evaluate exposure to emerging markets with deepening ties to Russia, as these nations may face increased scrutiny and potential secondary sanctions risk, impacting their economic stability and investment appeal.