Institutional Investors Piled Into IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. Stocks -- and They'll Likely Regret It

Quantum-computing pure plays have become a hot institutional trade: IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave and Quantum Computing Inc. have rallied roughly 69%, 1,720%, 1,300% and 299% over the trailing year (as of Nov. 18), and 13F filings through Sept. 30 show material quarter-over-quarter increases in positions (IonQ 169.9m shares, +27.4%; Rigetti 164.1m, +31.8%; D‑Wave 182.3m, +16.1%; Quantum Computing Inc. 90.2m, +61.7%). The bid is driven by the technology’s transformative use cases, cloud partnerships with Amazon and Microsoft, optimistic revenue trajectories (potential triple‑digit sales growth in 2026) and long‑run estimates of up to $850bn in economic value from BCG. However, the stocks trade at extreme projected 2026 price‑to‑sales multiples (IonQ ~92x, Rigetti ~424x, D‑Wave ~206x, Quantum Computing Inc. ~1,383x), face long commercialization timelines and direct competition from cash‑rich hyperscalers developing in‑house quantum chips, meaning recent institutional buying could be exposed to a severe re-rating if adoption lags or a bubble dynamic reverses.

Analysis

Quantum-computing pure plays IonQ, Rigetti, D‑Wave and Quantum Computing Inc. have been a dominant institutional theme in 2025, rallying roughly 69%, 1,720%, 1,300% and 299% over the trailing year (as of Nov. 18). 13F filings (deadline Nov. 14) show material quarter‑over‑quarter increases in 13F holdings through Sept. 30: IonQ 169.9m shares (+27.4%), Rigetti 164.1m (+31.8%), D‑Wave 182.3m (+16.1%) and Quantum Computing Inc. 90.2m (+61.7%).

The bid is grounded in credible use cases (AI acceleration, molecular simulation), cloud partnerships (Amazon and Microsoft offering access to IonQ and Rigetti hardware), projected triple‑digit sales growth in 2026 for these pure plays, and long‑run market size estimates such as Boston Consulting Group’s $850bn economic value potential by 2040. These factors explain why institutional allocators have increased exposure despite early commercialization.

Valuation and timing create acute downside risk: projected 2026 price‑to‑sales ratios sit at ~92x for IonQ, ~424x for Rigetti, ~206x for D‑Wave and ~1,383x for Quantum Computing Inc., well above historical bubble ceilings (P/S ~30–40). Coupled with long maturity timelines for commercialization and the possibility that cash‑rich hyperscalers (Microsoft, Alphabet) will internalize quantum capabilities, recent inflows could be vulnerable to rapid re‑rating if adoption lags or flows reverse.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Limit or reduce new long exposure to pure‑play quantum stocks at current valuations and confine positions to a small speculative sleeve given extreme projected 2026 P/S multiples
• Favor indirect exposure via large cloud providers (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet) or diversified technology vehicles rather than concentrated stakes in pure plays because hyperscalers have cash and in‑house development
• Protect existing long positions with hedges or options and avoid levering into these names until demonstrable commercialization milestones and revenue inflection points are reported
• Monitor upcoming 13F filings, customer deployment announcements, and any material downward revision to growth estimates as triggers for rebalancing or opportunistic entry