After-Hours Earnings Report for November 25, 2025 : ADSK, WDAY, ZS, DELL, HPQ, NTAP, NTNX, ARWR, URBN, AMBA, CLSK, PD

Multiple technology, hardware and retail companies are scheduled to report after-hours on 11/25/2025, with consensus EPS forecasts highlighting a range of outcomes: Autodesk $1.78 (consensus, +17.88% y/y), Workday $0.90 (+11.11%), Dell $2.26 (+17.71%), NetApp $1.51 (-1.31%), HP Inc. $0.91 (-2.15%) and Zscaler at a loss of $-0.05 (-25.0%). Several smaller or high-variance names show large y/y percentage swings and analyst context — Arrowhead $0.12 (+108.7%), CleanSpark $0.05 (+118.5%), PagerDuty $0.02 (+166.7%) and Ambarella expected loss of $-0.40 though improving y/y — while historical miss/beat patterns (e.g., ZS, WDAY misses; NTNX, URBN, PD consistent beats) and reported P/E comparisons provide additional stock-specific catalysts. These releases are likely to move individual stocks and sector flows rather than broad markets, making them important for short-term trading and portfolio positioning.

Analysis

Market structure: Enterprise SaaS winners (ADSK, WDAY) should continue to benefit from sticky subscription revenue—consensus EPS growth +17.9% and +11.1% respectively—while security (ZS, EPS consensus -25%) and cyclical hardware (DELL, HPQ, NTAP) face demand-sensitivity and inventory risk. Competitive dynamics favor software vendors with high ARR visibility (ADSK, WDAY, NTNX) who can sustain pricing power versus commodity server/storage vendors where margin compression is likely if end‑customer refreshes slow. Cross-asset: a tech beat cycle would compress IG tech credit spreads by ~10–25bp, depress VIX and USD marginally; hardware weakness would pressure high‑yield issuance in IT vendors and push up used-equipment supply into secondary markets.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a big Zscaler guide-down that triggers a sector re-rate, ARWR clinical/regulatory binary outcomes, and faster-than-expected channel destocking for DELL/HPQ that could knock 5–10% off near-term revenues. Time horizons matter: expect 3–7 day volatility spikes around 11/25 earnings, 1–3 month revisions to 2026 guidance, and 2–4 quarter secular shifts if cloud/AI spend ramps. Hidden dependencies: FX exposures (EM revenue), OEM supply/backlog dynamics, and deferred revenue recognition can mask true ARR trends. Key catalysts: ARR/NRR prints, guidance beats/misses, and any material M&A or buyback announcements.

Trade implications: Favor defined-risk long exposure to ADSK/WDAY (1–3% each) into earnings; use protective collars or calendar spreads to cap downside for 7–30 days. Implement a short-biased, defined-risk stance on ZS via 30–45 day put spreads sized to 1% portfolio given prior -100% EPS miss and negative sentiment; close if ARR growth prints +200bps above consensus. Pair trade idea: long NTNX (1%) vs short DELL (1%) over 3–12 months—NTNX has consistent beats and higher upside optionality while DELL is cyclical.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates mean-reversion in deeply sold security names—if ZS stabilizes ARR and narrows churn, a technical short-squeeze of 10–30% is plausible within 2–4 weeks. Conversely, Nutanix’s streak of beats suggests upside surprise risk is underpriced (consider layering longs on 5–10% post‑earnings weakness). Historical parallels: past channel-driven hardware troughs recovered in 2–4 quarters once inventory normalized. Unintended consequence: aggressive shorting of cloud/security names can be painful if a strategic buyer or unexpected guide raise appears.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% combined long position in ADSK and WDAY (≈1–1.5% each) ahead of 11/25 earnings, using a 30–45 day protective collar; trim if ARR/recurring revenue guidance misses consensus by >2% or churn rises >100bps.
• Initiate a 1% portfolio-sized short via 30–45 day put spread on ZS (defined-risk, ~10–15% OTM spread depending on spot) to capitalize on weak EPS/guide risk; close if company reports ARR growth beating consensus by >200bps or a material M&A/partnership emerges.
• Execute a 1% long NTNX / 1% short DELL pair trade over a 3–12 month horizon to capture secular software vs cyclical hardware divergence; unwind if NTNX misses guidance or DELL announces >$1B buyback or unexpected expansion.
• Buy a 30–60 day call spread on URBN sized 0.5–1% of portfolio (10% OTM spread) to play holiday upside; reduce direct hardware exposure (HPQ/DELL) by 1–2% if channel/inventory commentary shows QoQ revenue downside >3%.
• Set a conditional 0.5% event-driven allocation to ARWR triggered only if a clinical/FDA milestone is scheduled within 6 months or if near-term guidance materially improves; avoid otherwise due to binary regulatory risk.