The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of August 2025

An analysis of major US stock indices through August 2025 reveals their long-term, inflation-adjusted resilience since the 2000 peaks. While all three indices posted positive real month-over-month gains in August, the study highlights that $1,000 invested at their respective 2000 peaks would have yielded significant real compounded annual returns: 5.05% for the S&P 500 (SPY), 5.03% for the Dow (DIA), and 4.56% for the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ). This demonstrates consistent inflation-adjusted wealth creation over a 25-year horizon, despite initial post-2000 market challenges.

Analysis

An analysis of major U.S. indices through August 2025 reveals positive short-term momentum and significant long-term, inflation-adjusted growth. For August, the Dow Jones led with a 3.0% real month-over-month gain, outpacing the S&P 500's 1.8% and the Nasdaq's 1.4%. Over a longer, 25-year horizon since the 2000 market peaks, all indices have demonstrated resilience despite a difficult first 15 years. The last decade has been particularly strong, delivering real returns of 124% for the S&P 500 and 125% for the Nasdaq. When examining the performance of their tracking ETFs from the 2000 peaks, the data shows a consistent generation of real wealth. An initial $1,000 investment would have grown to $3,515 in the DIA (Dow) and $3,499 in the SPY (S&P 500), translating to real compounded annual returns of 5.03% and 5.05%, respectively. Notably, despite its tech-heavy composition, the QQQ (Nasdaq-100) yielded a slightly lower real compounded return of 4.56% from its 2000 peak, with $1,000 growing to $3,113, underscoring the severity of its initial downturn and the subsequent outperformance of broader, more diversified indices over this specific long-term period.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should recognize the power of long-term holding, as the data confirms that major U.S. index ETFs have delivered real compounded annual returns of 4.5% to 5.0% over a 25-year period, even when initiated at a market peak.
• For core long-term holdings, consider the consistent, inflation-adjusted performance of broad-market ETFs like SPY and blue-chip focused DIA, which outperformed the growth-oriented QQQ in real terms over the analyzed 25-year timeframe since the 2000 peak.
• Always evaluate portfolio returns on an inflation-adjusted basis to accurately measure the growth of real purchasing power, as nominal gains can be misleading.