Soybeans Holding Higher at Midday

The soybean market experienced midday gains, with contracts rising up to 3 cents and cash beans reaching $10.01, though soymeal futures declined. USDA export inspections showed a 50.4% weekly drop in soybean shipments but a 13.3% year-over-year increase, with significant volumes directed to Mexico and Egypt despite no sales to China, contributing to an 11.1% year-to-date increase in marketing year shipments. Concurrently, managed money significantly expanded their net long position in soybean futures by 16,537 contracts, indicating growing bullish sentiment, as the US crop is estimated to be 64% planted.

Analysis

The soybean market is posting midday gains on Monday, with contracts stready to 3 cents in the green. The cmdtyView Cash Bean price is up 3/4 cents to $10.01. Soymeal futures are down $4.60/ton on the day, with Soy Oil futures back up 35 points. USDA reported a total of 145,000 MT of soybean meal sold to the Philippines for the current marketing year. USDA’s Export Inspections report indicated a total of 217,842 (8 mbu) of soybeans shipped in the week that ended on 5/15. That was down 50.4% from the previous week but 13.3% above the same week in 2024. Another round of no shipments to China were reported, with 65,958 MT headed to Mexico and 52,843 MT to Egypt. Marketing year shipments have totaled 44.13 MMT (1.622 bbu), which is up 11.1% compared to the same week last year. The US soybean crop is expected to be pegged at 64% planted as of May 18, with analyst ideas ranging from 61-70%. The large managed money spec funds in soybean futures and options increased their net long position by another 16,537 contracts during the week that ended last Tuesday. That took their net long position to a total of 38,407 contracts by May 13th. Jul 25 Soybeans are at $10.50 3/4, up 3/4 cent, Nearby Cash is at $10.01, up 3/4 cent, Aug 25 Soybeans are at $10.47 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents, Nov 25 Soybeans are at $10.38 1/2, up 3 cents, New Crop Cash is at $9.75, up 2 1/4 cents, On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. More news from Barchart - Market Top Warning: Get Ready to Sell Soybean Oil Futures - Looking for Value? September Soybean Meal Futures Could Be a Buy Here. - Can Grain and Oilseed Prices Move Even Higher? - The Soybean Market Is Demonstrating Resilience. Here Are the Levels to Watch Before You Buy July Soybean Futures. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Soybean futures showed midday gains, with contracts rising up to 3 cents and the cmdtyView Cash Bean price increasing by 3/4 cents to $10.01. This positive movement in the underlying commodity was observed despite a divergent performance in related products, as soymeal futures declined by $4.60/ton while soy oil futures advanced by 35 points. USDA export inspections for the week ending May 15th reported 217,842 MT of soybeans shipped, representing a 50.4% decrease from the prior week but a 13.3% increase compared to the same week in 2024. Notably, there were no reported shipments to China, with significant volumes directed to Mexico (65,958 MT) and Egypt (52,843 MT, while marketing year shipments totaled 44.13 MMT, marking an 11.1% increase year-over-year. The US soybean crop planting is estimated at 64% as of May 18th, falling within analyst expectations ranging from 61-70%. Concurrently, managed money spec funds substantially increased their net long position in soybean futures and options by 16,537 contracts in the week ending May 13th, reaching a total of 38,407 contracts. This significant accumulation of long positions underscores a growing bullish sentiment among institutional investors for soybeans.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor the sustained bullish sentiment evidenced by the increase in managed money net long positions, which could provide upward price momentum for SOYB.
• Evaluate the shifting export dynamics, including the absence of sales to China and robust demand from Mexico and Egypt, as these regional shifts may influence future price stability and supply chain considerations.
• Consider the implications of planting progress on potential supply while also observing the divergent performance between soy oil and soymeal futures for spread trading opportunities or hedging strategies.