Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as Trump hints at chip tariff carveout

US stock futures advanced on Thursday, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.6% to 0.8%, despite the implementation of President Trump's broad new tariffs impacting imports from nearly 200 countries. Market sentiment was primarily buoyed by hints of a semiconductor tariff carveout for US-based manufacturing, notably benefiting Apple after its $100 billion US investment and potential exemption from a proposed 100% semiconductor tariff. While DoorDash saw premarket gains on strong guidance, Airbnb and Lyft declined on weak forecasts, as investors also anticipate new weekly jobless claims data.

Analysis

US equity futures are demonstrating resilience, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures rising 0.8% and outperforming the S&P 500 (+0.7%) and Dow (+0.6%), despite the formal implementation of broad-based tariffs on nearly 200 trade partners. The market's positive sentiment is primarily driven by President Trump's indication of a potential tariff exemption for semiconductor companies that commit to US-based manufacturing. Apple (AAPL) exemplifies this theme, with its shares climbing in premarket trading following the announcement of a $100 billion US investment, which could shield it from a proposed 100% tariff on semiconductors. This policy-driven optimism, however, coexists with significant underlying divergence and macroeconomic risk. Post-earnings reactions show a discerning market, with DoorDash (DASH) shares jumping on an upbeat forecast while Airbnb (ABNB) and Lyft (LYFT) fell on disappointing guidance. Furthermore, the market awaits fresh weekly jobless claims data, which carries heightened importance following a weak July jobs report and downward revisions to prior months, posing a potential headwind to the current sentiment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor technology firms, particularly within the semiconductor supply chain, that have significant US manufacturing operations or investment plans, as they may offer relative insulation from escalating trade policy risks, as seen with Apple (AAPL).
• Given the divergent stock reactions of DoorDash (DASH) versus Airbnb (ABNB) and Lyft (LYFT), it is critical to scrutinize individual company guidance, as strong fundamentals and outlook are being rewarded while weak forecasts are being punished, irrespective of broader market trends.
• A degree of caution is warranted ahead of the upcoming weekly jobless claims data, as a weak print could quickly dampen the current policy-driven optimism by refocusing the market on underlying economic fundamentals and labor market health.