Adobe Analytics forecasts U.S. online holiday spending to reach $253.4 billion, a 5.3% year-over-year increase, yet this growth is slower than previous years and the long-term average, reflecting consumer discount-seeking amidst economic uncertainty. While online channels, driven by mobile and a projected 520% surge in AI-powered research, are expected to perform, broader holiday retail forecasts from firms like Bain and PwC indicate more modest overall spending growth, with some consumers, particularly Gen Z, planning to spend less.
Online holiday spending in the U.S. is expected to jump 5.3% year over year to $253.4 billion as consumers seek discounts and even enlist the help of artificial intelligence-powered chatbots, according to an Adobe Analytics report released Monday. Yet that growth would still be slower than the year-ago holiday season, when online sales rose 8.7% from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, the company said. Adobe's data tracks more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites, 100 million unique items and 18 different product categories. That growth is also below the 10-year average of roughly 13% annually. That mark was partially skewed by the 32% year-over-year growth in 2020 when consumers leaned on retailers' online options during the Covid pandemic. Customers' desire to celebrate the season with decor and gifts — and to take advantage of lower prices during a promotional time — will prop up spending even at an uncertain time for the U.S. economy, said Vivek Pandya, Adobe's director of digital insights. "The holiday season is one of the areas where they do feel much more of an onus and a drive to get the goods they need," he said. "We're seeing them willing to spend and capitalize on these sales moments." Plus, he said consumers have embraced the habit of stockpiling goods if they feel prices may be volatile, which could help to stabilize spending. He said while holiday spending is expected to slow from last year, "given everything that the consumer is dealing with, it's still pronounced growth." Higher online spending may not necessarily translate to a boost in overall holiday sales. Adobe's data tracks only e-commerce, and the company estimates about one in four dollars of holiday sales will be spent online, Pandya said. Retail sales in the U.S. have chugged along this year, but concerns about higher prices from tariffs and dipping consumer confidence have complicated the outlook for the critical shopping season. Some holiday forecasts, which capture both in-store and online spending, have predicted more modest growth than in recent years or even a decline. Holiday spending across stores and online is expected to grow 4% year over year – a decline from the 10-year average of 5.2% growth, according to consulting firm Bain & Company's projections. Consumers said they plan to spend about 5% less – or an average of $1,552 – on holiday gifts, travel and entertainment, compared to the year-ago season, according to a survey by consulting firm PwC, which included a representative sample of 4,000 U.S. consumers and was conducted in late June and early July. That projected spending, in particular, was dragged down by members of Gen Z saying that they planned to spend 23% less than the year-ago holiday season, according to PwC's survey. Adobe expects the peak of holiday spending during Cyber Week, which stretches from Thanksgiving through the Monday after Christmas that's dubbed Cyber Monday. That five-day period is expected to drive 17.2%, or $43.7 billion, of overall online holiday spending, Adobe said, roughly in line with the 17% that period accounted for in the year-ago holiday season. Discounting levels will be roughly similar to the year-ago holiday season, Adobe predicted, with slightly weaker discounts in some categories. For example, discounts on electronics are expected to peak at 28% off the listed price compared to 30.1% in the year-ago period. Adobe expects toys to hit 27% off compared to 28% in the year-ago period. Mobile devices will be the primary driver for online shopping, Adobe said, with the company expecting holiday shopping done there to account for 56.1% of online spending compared with desktops. It's a meaningful jump from the 40% of online spending that mobile devices represented during the 2020 holiday season. As shoppers search for gifts, more are expected to turn to generative AI-powered chat services and browsers to research what toys, jewelry, clothing or other items to buy. Adobe expects AI traffic to rise by 520% year over year, with the busiest traffic days leading up to Thanksgiving. U.S. online holiday spending is forecast by Adobe Analytics to grow 5.3% year-over-year to $253.4 billion, a figure that indicates a significant deceleration from both the 8.7% growth in the prior year and the 10-year average of 13%. This slowing momentum is contextualized by broader economic uncertainty and more cautious consumer behavior, with other forecasts suggesting even weaker overall retail performance. For instance, Bain & Company projects total holiday sales growth of only 4%, while a PwC survey indicates consumers plan to reduce their holiday spending by an average of 5%, driven by a sharp 23% planned cut from Gen Z. Despite the slowdown, e-commerce remains a key driver, projected to account for one-quarter of all holiday sales. This online activity is increasingly dominated by mobile devices, which are expected to represent 56.1% of online spending, and influenced by new technology, with generative AI-powered shopping research traffic projected to surge 520% YoY. Discounting levels are expected to be largely similar to the previous year, though slightly weaker in key categories like electronics, which may impact retailer margins.
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