Is there a launch today? Upcoming NASA, SpaceX, ULA launch schedule in Florida

Cape Canaveral and Kennedy Space Center begin February launch activity following Florida's record 109 orbital launches in 2025, with seven SpaceX missions completed by end of January. Near-term schedule items include SpaceX Falcon 9 Starlink launches on Feb. 3 (Starlink 6-103, 29 satellites) and Feb. 7 (Starlink 6-104, 29 satellites) from LC-40; NASA's Artemis II no earlier than Feb. 8 from KSC Pad 39B; SpaceX Crew-12 to the ISS no earlier than Feb. 11 (6:00 a.m., sonic booms expected); and a ULA Vulcan national-security USSF-87 mission rescheduled to Feb. 12 from LC-41. Later planned flights affecting contractors and launch-service providers include Blue Origin New Glenn-3 (AST SpaceMobile payload) in late February, Blue Moon Pathfinder in H1 2026, Boeing Starliner-1 no earlier than April, and ULA/Sierra Space Dream Chaser in Q4 2026; all dates and times remain subject to change.

Analysis

Market structure: The high cadence out of Cape Canaveral (109 launches in 2025) cements launch services as a near-commodity market where SpaceX retains pricing power but entrants (Blue Origin New Glenn, ULA Vulcan) create marginal downward pressure on prices (we model a 10–20% real-price erosion for generic rides over 2–3 years). Direct beneficiaries: launch vehicle suppliers, NASA/DoD prime contractors and satellite-constellation customers (ASTS is a levered beneficiary of a successful New Glenn-3). Losers: single-mission OEMs and companies whose revenue depends on flawless first flights (BA’s Starliner program carries execution risk).

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are a New Glenn or Vulcan anomaly that causes a 30–60 day regulatory stand‑down (could wipe 20–50% off affected small-cap manifests) and a high‑profile Artemis/Crew anomaly that tightens NASA oversight and insurance pricing (+10–30% spike in launch insurance). Immediate (days) volatility centers on each launch window; short term (weeks–months) is dictated by post‑flight telemetry and insurance repricing; long term (quarters–years) is structural commoditization vs. differentiated government programs. Hidden dependencies: BE‑4 engine readiness, supply‑chain queueing, FCC/NTIA spectrum approvals for satcom.

Trade implications: Tactical: small, event‑driven positions — prefer a 2–3% long in ASTS sized for binary outcome around New Glenn-3 (late Feb), financed via tight call spreads to cap premium; trim/avoid BA exposure (1–2% underweight) until Starliner-1 completes in-flight validation (target: within 60 days of launch). Buy 6–12 month exposure to aerospace primes with stable cash flows (LHX, RTX, NOC) at 1–3% each to play sustained NASA/DoD budgets. Options: buy directional call spreads on ASTS with expiry 90 days post-launch and protective put spreads on BA keyed to Starliner milestones.

Contrarian angles: Consensus overweights SpaceX’s invulnerability and underestimates regulatory/debris risk that could slow cadence — that would temporarily reprice smaller launchers and satellite operators. Conversely, if New Glenn succeeds, ASTS (ASTS) is underpriced for carry and in-orbit service revenue; historical parallel: post‑explosion insurance repricing in 2015 created short windows to buy successful incumbents. Unintended consequence: faster cadence increases debris risk and could trigger costly mitigation rules, favoring larger contractors with compliance budgets.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) using a 3-month call spread (buy ATM, sell 1.5–2× OTM) sized so max premium = 0.5–1% portfolio; if New Glenn-3 achieves on-orbit operations within 7 days, hold; if no successful deployment within 30 days, cut at -40%.
• Reduce Boeing (BA) exposure by 1–2% to neutral and buy a protective Sep (or 6–9 month) put spread (e.g., -10%/-20% strikes) sized to hedge existing BA downside through Starliner-1 validation (target event window: Apr–Jun).
• Allocate 1–2% each to L3Harris (LHX) and RTX (RTX) as 6–12 month plays on sustained NASA/DoD spend and mission support services; take profits if either stock outperforms the S&P by >20% within 3 months.
• Keep a 1% cash/option allocation as event hedge to buy volatility (straddles/ATM strangles) immediately after any launch anomaly or FAA investigation announcement; monitor FAA/insurance bulletin updates within 14–45 days post‑anomaly for redeployment.
• Before initiating or increasing positions, require two checkpoints: (1) BE‑4 acceptance/flight telemetry report within 72 hours of New Glenn-3, and (2) NASA’s post‑Artemis II debrief (if flown) within 30 days — if either fails to meet nominal criteria, reduce related allocations by at least 50%.