In Memoriam: All the tech that died in 2025

Throughout 2025 a string of tech product and service retirements highlighted shifting industry priorities and mixed consumer reception: TiVo removed DVRs from its site in October as it pivots to software; Microsoft phased out its password manager in favor of device-stored passkeys; Humane shuttered support for its $700 AI Pin in February after extensive returns; Microsoft retired Skype by May; Mozilla shut Pocket (which had ~30 million users) in July; Zelle ended its standalone mobile app in April while retaining bank integrations; Google announced Android Auto will drop Google Assistant in March 2026 in favor of Gemini; and the Mr. Deepfakes site went offline after a service-provider shutdown amid new NCII legislation. Notable regulatory and legal risks remain for the AI and content ecosystems, underscored by a Ziff Davis lawsuit against OpenAI filed in April.

Analysis

Market structure: The tech shifts favor ecosystem owners and enterprise identity players — MSFT gains from Teams absorbing Skype and passkey migration, while standalone consumer apps (Pocket, Humane AI Pin) and feature niches (password managers) lose distribution. Expect password-manager consumer TAM to compress ~20–30% over 12–24 months; Teams/Office bundling increases MSFT’s cross-sell power, pressuring pure-play comms and bookmarking incumbents. Macro impact: a regulatory-led tech re-rating would widen IG credit spreads +10–30bp and lift FX safe-havens; commodity impacts are minimal.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are regulatory and litigation shocks — e.g., enforcement around content (Take It Down Act) or a landmark copyright ruling (Ziff Davis v. OpenAI) that could create $100M–$1B earnings hits for AI/platform firms. Near-term (days–weeks) volatility will cluster around earnings and legal filings; medium-term (3–12 months) risk centers on ad-revenue guidance (META) and AI monetization cadence (GOOG). Hidden dependencies: user behavior stickiness to passwords, bank-embedded Zelle rails, and hardware supplier capex cycles could produce second-order P&L shocks.

Trade implications: Tactical: establish a 1–2% long MSFT overweight (12-month horizon) to play enterprise identity benefits; hedge with 3–6 month covered-call sales if volatility spikes >25%. Initiate a 1–1.5% short META position or buy a 3–6 month put spread 8–12% OTM to size regulatory/execution risk; reduce ad/social cyclicals weight by 200–300bps. Pair trade: long AAPL (1.5%) vs short GOOGL (1%) over 6–12 months — AAPL benefits from delayed third‑party AI devices and resilient hardware margins; consider 6–9 month call skew on GOOG if Gemini monetization misses.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may over-penalize Google for Assistant->Gemini; if Gemini drives search UX lift and CPMs improve, GOOGL downside is overstated and a bounce of 10–15% is plausible within 6–12 months. Conversely, the market may under-appreciate M&A in identity/password space — look for acquisition targets if passkey adoption metrics exceed 25% in enterprise reports. Watch catalysts: legal rulings (Ziff Davis), Microsoft enterprise adoption metrics next 1–2 quarters, and OpenAI device supply signals into 2026–2027 to reweight exposure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 1.5–2.0% long position in MSFT (12-month horizon) ahead of expected enterprise passkey adoption and Teams consolidation; if MSFT outperforms guidance by >2 percentage points on next quarter, add to 3% position; sell covered calls if IV >25% to collect premium.
• Reduce direct exposure to META by 2–3% and purchase a 3–6 month put spread on META 8–12% OTM as a tail-hedge against regulatory/ad revenue downside; unwind if META reports ad-revenue organic growth >3% QoQ or regulatory guidance clarity reduces downside risk.
• Put on a pair trade: long AAPL (1.5% weight) vs short GOOGL (1.0% weight) for 6–12 months to play hardware resilience vs AI transition risk; add to AAPL on pullbacks of 8–12% and trim GOOGL if Gemini monetization metrics beat consensus by >10% within two quarters.
• Monitor Ziff Davis v. OpenAI filings and U.S. regulatory activity over the next 30–90 days; if a preliminary ruling or fines >$250M are reported, tactically increase protection via broad tech put overlays (cost-cap 1–1.5% of portfolio) and short high-beta AI/platform names.