Micron price target boosted ahead of earnings on memory pricing rebound, favorable margin outlook

Wedbush raised its 12‑month price target on Micron to $300 from $220 and reiterated an Outperform ahead of fiscal Q1 results, citing sharper‑than‑expected DRAM and NAND price gains that have prompted the firm to lift estimates and valuation assumptions; Micron shares were trading near $241 (market cap ≈ $271bn) at the time. The analysts expect Micron to beat and raise guidance for the quarter, forecast calendar Q4 DRAM price gains of at least ~30% and NAND gains of ~20%, see additional upside into fiscal Q2, and now model sustained gross margins near 60% that could support more than $30 of EPS over the next fiscal year. Wedbush remains cautiously constructive—allowing for variability by product mix and contracts in its fiscal Q3 view—and downplays investor worries about HBM4 performance, noting Micron’s 2026 HBM allocation and comparable margins for commodity memory.

Analysis

Wedbush raised its 12-month price target on Micron to $300 from $220 and reiterated an Outperform, citing stronger-than-expected DRAM and NAND pricing and a more favorable margin outlook; Micron shares were trading around $241 with a market capitalization near $271 billion at the time of the note. The firm increased estimates and valuation inputs after observing steep DRAM spot gains in September and October and sharp NAND price gains in October/November, and explicitly expects Micron’s fiscal Q1 results to exceed company guidance.

Wedbush projects calendar Q4 DRAM pricing could rise by at least 30% and NAND by at least 20%, and anticipates fiscal Q2 benefiting from continued ASP improvement; the analysts raised quarterly estimates to slightly above the high end of Micron’s initial forecast and warned their model may still be conservative. They are more cautious on fiscal Q3, assuming average selling price increases of roughly 10% to allow for variability by product mix and contract terms.

The firm now models sustained gross margins near 60% over the next several quarters and suggests Micron could generate more than $30 of EPS over the next fiscal year if margins hold; Wedbush also downplayed HBM4 transfer-rate concerns, noting Micron’s HBM production is fully allocated for 2026 and that commodity memory margins may match or exceed HBM. Key risks that would alter this constructive view are weaker realized ASPs, unfavorable product-mix effects, or management guidance that revises near-term margin assumptions lower.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider adding or initiating a selective long position ahead of Micron's fiscal Q1 report, given Wedbush's expectation of a beat and a raised $300 price target from $241, while sizing exposure to withstand potential post-earnings volatility.
• Monitor realized ASPs and company gross-margin disclosure closely on the earnings call; reduce exposure or hedge if Micron's realized pricing and margin metrics lag the 30% DRAM / 20% NAND assumptions cited by Wedbush.
• Treat fiscal Q3 guidance as a critical inflection point—if management signals only high single- to low-double-digit ASP gains, expect upside to shift into later quarters and adjust position duration accordingly.
• Track HBM4 commentary and 2026 allocation details; if competitive performance or margins diverge from Wedbush's view that HBM concerns are a 'red herring,' reassess conviction in premium valuation assumptions.