US Bonds Steady as Traders Bet War Uncertainty Keeps Fed on Hold

Bond traders are pricing in the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates on hold for the coming year, leaving Treasury yields broadly steady. Markets are positioned cautiously ahead of President Trump’s extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, elevating geopolitical risk and constraining volatility in Treasuries.

Analysis

Bond traders are pricing in the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates on hold for the coming year, leaving Treasury yields broadly steady. Markets are positioned cautiously ahead of President Trump’s extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, elevating geopolitical risk and constraining volatility in Treasuries.