Box Office: 'Wicked: For Good' Boosts Opening Day for Biggest of 2025

Universal’s Wicked: For Good opened to a blockbuster $68.6 million from Friday and previews at 4,115 North American locations (including $12.6 million in early screenings), putting it on pace for a roughly $151.5 million opening weekend — the biggest ever for a Broadway adaptation and the second-largest for Universal — aided by near-exclusive premium-format bookings (IMAX/4DX/ScreenX) and a CinemaScore “A.” While early reviews are cooler than last year’s predecessor, the film’s strong commercial performance (Universal has invested ~$300 million across both Wicked films) injects a major holiday-era tentpole back into North American box office health. Other releases showed steep second-week drops: Now You See Me 55% to a projected $9.4 million, Predator: Badlands down ~51%, The Running Man down ~63% to an estimated $6 million, while specialty titles Rental Family and Sisu: Road to Revenge posted modest starts with solid audience grades.

Analysis

Universal Pictures’ Wicked: For Good generated $68.6 million from Friday and preview screenings across 4,115 North American locations and is pacing to roughly a $151.5 million opening weekend; $12.6 million of that came from early previews and fan screenings, which complicates year-to-date comparisons. The Friday haul would be the biggest single-day gross of 2025 on headline numbers but carries an asterisk because Universal ran early previews; the film’s start eclipses last year’s Wicked $112 million debut in the same frame and would be Universal’s second-largest opening ever behind Jurassic World.

Premium formats and audience grades are materially supporting revenue: the title earned $922,000 in 4DX and $1.0 million in ScreenX across previews and Friday, and it posted a CinemaScore “A,” signaling strong front-loaded consumer demand and higher per-ticket yields. Universal has invested about $300 million across both Wicked features (excluding marketing), and this performance reintroduces a major holiday tentpole that should improve exhibitor throughput during a period that lacked nine‑figure openings.

Risk and signaling: peer releases show pronounced second-week drop rates—Now You See Me projects a 55% decline to an estimated $9.4 million, Predator: Badlands ~51% drop, and The Running Man a projected 63% fall—illustrating concentrated demand and front‑loaded economics. Cooler critical reception versus last year’s predecessor and the reliance on early-access previews create downside to multi-week legs; investors should monitor hold rates, premium-format share, and domestic-to-overseas splits for sustainability.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider increasing tactical exposure to theatrical exhibitors and studios with meaningful holiday slate upside given Wicked: For Good's projected ~$151.5 million weekend and premium-format revenue lift
• Track premium-format metrics (4DX $922k, ScreenX $1.0m) and premium-capacity share as leading indicators of per-screen revenue and exhibitor margin; add exposure if premium uplift sustains
• Trim or hedge exposure to films and studios that exhibit steep weekend-to-weekend declines (e.g., Now You See Me, The Running Man) because this pattern signals front-loaded, less durable revenue streams
• Monitor CinemaScore/early-audience grades, weekend hold rates and international grosses closely over the next two weekends and be prepared to reprice positions if For Good’s legs fall materially below current projections