16 Red States Where Energy Costs Could Go Up the Most Under Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’

President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," signed July 4, is projected to significantly increase energy costs by boosting oil and gas leasing while simultaneously repealing clean energy tax credits. This legislation is forecast to raise wholesale electricity prices by 74% and consumer rates by 9-18% by 2035, leading to an average annual household energy cost increase of $170. Analysis by Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, LLC indicates that Republican-led states, due to less developed renewable energy policies, will bear a disproportionate burden, with some households facing over $600 in additional annual costs by 2035.

Analysis

The newly enacted "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) signals a significant U.S. policy shift favoring fossil fuels over renewable energy. The legislation's dual approach of increasing oil and gas leasing while repealing clean energy tax credits is projected to have a substantial inflationary effect on energy markets. According to analysis from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, LLC, wholesale electricity prices are forecast to surge 74% by 2035, driving a 9% to 18% increase in consumer electricity rates and adding an average of $170 to annual household energy costs. The financial burden is expected to be unevenly distributed, with Republican-led states facing disproportionately higher costs—such as a projected $640 annual increase per household in Missouri—due to a general lack of state-level policies to promote renewable energy development. This policy framework creates clear winners in the traditional energy sector but introduces considerable headwinds for the renewable energy industry and raises long-term cost concerns for consumers, a sentiment reflected in the article's strongly negative tone.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should re-evaluate energy sector allocations, as the policy's support for increased oil and gas leasing may create tailwinds for traditional energy producers.
• Exercise caution with investments in the U.S. renewable energy sector, as the repeal of key tax credits directly threatens the profitability and growth outlook for companies dependent on such subsidies.
• Monitor utilities and consumer discretionary stocks, particularly those with high exposure to states like Missouri, Texas, and the Carolinas, for risks associated with regulatory pressure and eroding consumer spending power due to projected higher energy bills.