AMD price target raised to $165 from $145 at Citi on improving sentiment

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is experiencing significant positive momentum, with multiple analysts raising price targets and ratings due to strong AI expectations and the crucial resumption of MI308 chip shipments to China. Citi increased its target to $165, while HSBC upgraded AMD to Buy with a $200 target, forecasting $15.1 billion in FY26 AI revenue, significantly above consensus. Mizuho and BofA also raised their targets to $175, citing the re-entry into the $50 billion Chinese AI accelerator market and bolstered data center GPU prospects, despite Citi's cautionary note regarding potentially elevated buyside expectations.

Analysis

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is experiencing a significant uplift in analyst sentiment, primarily driven by two key catalysts: accelerating AI-related expectations and the resumption of critical chip shipments to China. Multiple investment banks have revised their outlooks upwards, with HSBC upgrading the stock to Buy with a $200 price target, underpinned by a fiscal year 2026 AI revenue forecast of $15.1 billion, which is substantially above consensus. Similarly, BofA Securities and Mizuho raised their targets to $175, citing the strategic importance of re-entering the $50 billion Chinese market for MI308 chips—a move that negates a previously anticipated $800 million revenue loss from export restrictions. BofA projects this could add approximately $1 billion to AMD's 2025 data center GPU forecast. However, a note of caution is warranted, as Citi, while raising its target to $165, maintained a Neutral rating due to concerns that "buyside expectations may be too high" heading into the August earnings report. This sentiment is contrasted with Citi's more cautious view on peer Micron (MU), which it suggests could face headwinds from DRAM price flattening and potential HBM oversupply.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Evaluate the resumption of MI308 chip shipments to China and upwardly revised AI revenue forecasts as primary drivers for potential near-to-medium term upside in the stock.
• Exercise caution around the upcoming August earnings report, as Citi's analysis suggests buyside expectations are elevated, creating a potential risk of a negative stock reaction even to in-line results.
• Monitor management's commentary on data center GPU sales and future AI revenue guidance closely, using HSBC's $15.1 billion fiscal year 2026 forecast and BofA's projected $1 billion uplift to 2025 forecasts as key benchmarks for performance.