Earnings Preview: Macy's (M) Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline

Macy's is projected to report a Q1 2025 earnings decline of 48.2% year-over-year to $0.14 per share, with revenues expected to fall 7.7% to $4.47 billion; the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.66% lower in the last 30 days. While Macy's has a positive Earnings ESP of +2.11%, indicating potential for an earnings beat, its Zacks Rank of #4 suggests uncertainty, making it difficult to predict a positive surprise on May 28, 2025.

Analysis

Macy's is approaching its Q1 2025 earnings report, scheduled for May 28, 2025, with consensus expectations pointing to a significant downturn. Projections indicate quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share, a sharp 48.2% year-over-year decline, and revenues of $4.47 billion, down 7.7% from the prior year. Underscoring a cautious analyst outlook, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downwards by 3.66% over the past 30 days. Despite these bearish headline figures, Macy's exhibits a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +2.11%, suggesting that the most recent analyst estimates are more optimistic and hinting at a potential earnings beat. However, this positive indicator is counterbalanced by the stock's current Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), which tempers the predictive power of the ESP and makes a conclusive earnings beat prediction challenging. While Macy's has a track record of surpassing EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, including a 16.13% surprise in the most recent reporting period, the current combination of conflicting signals warrants careful consideration. The market's reaction will likely depend heavily on whether actual results surpass these lowered expectations and, critically, on management's commentary regarding business conditions and future outlook.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should exercise caution ahead of Macy's Q1 earnings due to sharply lower consensus expectations for a 48.2% EPS decline and a 7.7% revenue drop, alongside a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), despite a positive Earnings ESP of +2.11%.
• Closely scrutinize the actual results on May 28, 2025, against the $0.14 EPS and $4.47 billion revenue forecasts; management's qualitative commentary on business trends and outlook will be crucial for gauging the sustainability of any post-earnings stock movement.
• While Macy's has a history of surpassing EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, the current 3.66% downward revision in consensus EPS over 30 days and overall weak quantitative signals warrant a prudent approach before adjusting positions.