Stocks to Love in 2026

Podcast discussion highlights three investment themes for 2026: space, medtech and disruptive telehealth. Space momentum from 2025 (RCSpace & Defense Innovation ETF up ~50%) could persist into 2026 driven by a rumored SpaceX IPO (cited at $1.5 trillion) and operational catalysts such as Rocket Lab's planned Neutron debut (Q1–Q2) with Rocket Lab (RKLB) favored and Redwire (RDW) presented as a lower-priced component supplier following a 2025 acquisition. In healthcare, TransMedics (commercial OCS organ‑care platform) is profitable, has expanded logistics via a ~21‑plane Summit Aviation fleet, and faces near‑term catalysts from large clinical trials (including a >650‑patient heart preservation trial); Hims & Hers is framed as a high‑risk, high‑reward disruptor (GLP‑1 exposure ~20% of revenue, >30% short interest) with legal/regulatory uncertainty around compounded therapies and partnership dynamics with branded manufacturers.

Analysis

Market structure: 2026 headlines (SpaceX IPO talk, GLP‑1 demand, transplant logistics) will concentrate capital into a narrow set of winners: launch OEMs/parts suppliers (RKLB, RDW) and vertically integrated medical logistics (TMDX). Losers: pure-play, unprofitable space startups and telehealth firms that rely on branded GLP‑1 supply or face legal/regulatory challenges; pricing power will concentrate to integrators who can scale logistics or hardware margins. Cross‑asset: a space re‑rating would lift small‑cap tech and implied equity vols, compress credit spreads for prime aerospace suppliers but increase bid for cyclicals; commodity impacts are modest except aluminum/titanium for hardware and jet fuel for logistics fleets.

Risk assessment: tail risks include a failed Rocket Lab Neutron maiden launch (Q1–Q2 2026), major negative TMDX trial outcome or Medicare reimbursement overhaul (12–24 months), and regulatory/legal action against compounders/GLP‑1 channels (60–180 days). Immediate volatility will be driven by launch/timing and GLP‑1 news; medium term (3–12 months) by trial readouts and SpaceX IPO chatter; long term (2–5 years) by profitability and scaling of logistics/hardware. Hidden dependencies: RDW and RKLB revenue sensitivity to government/defense budgets and supply‑chain lead times; HIMS dependency on short interest and legal clarity.

Trade implications: favor idiosyncratic, sized exposure and defined‑risk option structures rather than large directional bets. Use event‑driven sizing: small equity stakes (1–3%) ahead of Neutron launch or trial milestones, protected with 20–30% stop losses; allocate <1% to pure moonshots (RDW). Rotate out of broad unprofitable telehealth names if GLP‑1 revenue/share falls below 10% of reported revenue or if legal subpoenas surface.

Contrarian angles: the market overprices GLP‑1 as an existential make‑or‑break for HIMS (GLP‑1 ≈20% today) — HIMS has recurring labs, telehealth sticky revenues that can re-rate if legal risk clears. Conversely, a successful SpaceX IPO (even at 0.5× the $1.5T rumor) could reprice hardware suppliers 30–100% higher — but history (2015 space hype) warns of rapid drawdowns; guard for mean reversion and consolidation risks.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 1–2% long position in RKLB ahead of the Neutron test window (Q1–Q2 2026); hedge with a June 2026 25–35% OTM put or buy a June 2026 call spread to cap downside; trim/add if share price moves ±30% within 30 trading days of the launch.
• Allocate a speculative 0.5–1.0% position to RDW as a moonshot (target asymmetric payoff); prefer buying 12‑18 month call LEAPS or a call spread rather than outright shares; hard stop at −50% and take profits at +100%+ given binary execution risk.
• Initiate a 2–3% core long in TMDX (shares or 12‑month calls) ahead of the two major clinical trial readouts; increase exposure by another 1–2% only after positive interim data or confirmation of scalable reimbursement; cut to zero if CMS/Medicare signals adverse reimbursement reform.
• Use a defined‑risk options trade on HIMS: buy a 12‑month call spread sized 0.5–1% of portfolio (e.g., buy Jan‑2027 ITM/near‑ATM call, sell higher strike) to capture upside from GLP‑1/telehealth while limiting downside; liquidate if short interest drops below 10% or if a major regulatory enforcement action is announced within 60 days.
• Establish a 0.5% pair trade: long RKLB (or RDW) vs short ASTS (or buy puts on ASTS) to express preference for manufacturing/launch exposure over speculative D2D telecom plays; review after SpaceX IPO pricing data or after two consecutive quarters of ASTS revenue misses.