Bitcoin's price has historically followed a four-year cycle driven by halving events, typically leading to post-halving rallies followed by significant corrections. Following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin surged to $126,000 before a recent dip to $100,000, prompting debate on whether the cycle is breaking due to increased institutional adoption and pro-crypto political stances. A new consensus projects Bitcoin reaching $1 million within four years, with the next halving in March 2028 expected to drive a new all-time high by 2029, suggesting a long-term investment horizon is advisable despite anticipated volatility.
Bitcoin's price has historically adhered to a distinct four-year cycle, characterized by halving events that reduce new supply, triggering 12-18 month bull markets followed by significant corrections. Previous cycles saw price surges from $12 to $1,150 (2012), $650 to $20,000 (2016), and $700 to $69,000 (2020), each followed by 75-85% value depreciation. Following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin rallied to $126,000 before a recent dip to $100,000, prompting debate on the cycle's persistence. Bitcoin bulls argue the cycle is breaking due to a "tsunami" of institutional money and a staunch pro-Bitcoin political stance from the Trump administration, theoretically reducing speculative trading and providing a more solid support base. A new conventional wisdom projects Bitcoin reaching $1 million within the next four years. This outlook is anchored by the next halving event in March 2028, which is expected to propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high by 2029, despite anticipated volatility in the interim.
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