Duni Group and Relevo behind Munich’s circular initiative

Duni Group’s Relevo has launched ReMuc “Ois im Kreis”, a five-year pilot deploying five automated return stations at Munich’s Viktualienmarkt to operate a reusable food-container system with partners Recup, Circle Cube and Cup Company handling containers, returns, logistics and washing. The digital deposit-and-traceability solution positions Duni—majority owner of Relevo and listed on NASDAQ Stockholm—to capture demand driven by the EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (effective August 2026) and to scale urban reuse models that could modestly support its foodservice product offering and long-term competitiveness.

Analysis

Market structure: Winners are platformed reuse players and reverse-logistics providers — DUNI (STO:DUNI) and listed recyclers/return-tech like TOM (OSL:TOM) and VIE (EPA:VIE) — which gain recurring deposit revenue and higher pricing power versus commodity single-use producers (e.g., AMCR on NYSE). Expect a gradual shift in gross margin mix: reusable systems add service margins (~10-20% incremental gross margin) while reducing volume demand for polymer resin, pressuring resin makers and single-use packagers over 12–36 months. Cross-asset: small-cap packaging credit spreads likely widen (by 50–150bps) while euro-denominated equities with reuse exposure may outperform the EUR by a few percent on rotation flows.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include EU regulatory delays/reversals, a high-profile hygiene/recall event, or failed municipal rollouts — each could remove 10–30% of reuse upside and re-rate DUNI-like multiples by 10–25%. Immediate impact is muted (days), pilots and procurement cycles drive short-term (1–6 months) revenue signals, while PPWR enforcement (Aug 2026) is the structural long-term (12–36 months) catalyst. Hidden dependencies: municipal IT/POS integration, washing capacity bottlenecks, deposit behavior; monitor vendor LOIs and daily return rates to validate scalability.

Trade implications: Establish a 2–3% long in DUNI (STO:DUNI) with a staggered build over 30–90 days; hedge with 1–2% long in TOM (OSL:TOM) for reverse-logistics exposure. Implement a pair trade: long DUNI 2%, short AMCR (NYSE:AMCR) 1% to express reuse vs. single-use rotation. Options: buy DUNI Jan 2028 LEAPS ~15% OTM (limit allocation 0.5–1%) or use a 12–18 month call spread to cap premium; scale into H1 2026 as PPWR clarity emerges.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates recurring-revenue value from deposit platforms — market may underprice a 10–20% uplift to EV/EBITDA for platformed players. Historical parallel: Scandinavian deposit-return scaling (Tomra) shows reuse drives durable service margins rather than pure volume substitution. Unintended consequence: higher capex and working capital for small vendors could create regional distress — screen for subscale caterers for credit longs/PE opportunities when return-rate thresholds (daily return >40% or deposit ≥€1) are met.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider establishing a 2–3% long position in DUNI (STO:DUNI) over the next 30–90 days, dollar-cost-average into pilot adoption signals; overweight if municipal rollouts and vendor LOIs are announced or daily return rates exceed 30% for Viktualienmarkt within 3 months.
• Initiate a 1–2% long position in TOM (OSL:TOM) to play reverse-logistics and deposit-return infrastructure, adding if Tomra reports >5% revenue acceleration in recycling/returns segment within 6 months.
• Implement a pair trade: long DUNI 2% / short AMCR (NYSE:AMCR) 1% to express reuse upside vs. single-use exposure; rebalance if AMCR narrows spread by >10% or DUNI misses adoption KPIs.
• Buy DUNI Jan 2028 LEAPS ~15% OTM (allocation 0.5–1% of portfolio) or a 12–18 month call spread to capture asymmetric upside while limiting premium; exit or roll down if PPWR delegated acts are delayed beyond Q3 2026.
• Reduce pure single-use packaging exposure (e.g., lower AMCR/SMDS.L weight by 1–3%) and rotate 3–5% into waste/recycling and automated-return tech names; reallocate further if EU procurement (>€5m contracts) or PPWR final texts are published within 30–60 days.