Sinch Mailgun report: Companies are leaving email performance on the table

Nearly 18% of emails failed to reach the inbox, Sinch Mailgun reports in its Email Impact Report 2026, based on more than 400 billion emails sent in 2025 and a global survey of over 1,200 email senders. The report publishes new industry benchmarks across 10 high-volume sending sectors and highlights material deliverability gaps that likely leave significant revenue unrealized for senders.

Analysis

Winners will be platforms that can convert inbox-placement into a priced, measurable SLA — large ESPs and cloud providers with existing transactional pipelines and identity controls gain leverage to charge for guaranteed placement and advanced analytics. Small-volume senders and low-margin list-buying marketers will see margins compress as authentication, remediation and monitoring become table stakes; that will accelerate consolidation toward a handful of certified delivery partners.

Mechanically, expect two monetizable shifts over 6–24 months: (1) transition from pure volume pricing to value-based pricing (per-inbox or per-conversion SLAs) and (2) rapid adoption of authentication and reputation services that carry recurring revenue and high gross margins. These changes favor vendors that can instrument placement and prove lift with deterministic attribution — creating an annuity-like revenue stream that can re-rate multiples if adoption is visible in KPIs.

Tail risks are clear and time-staggered: in the near-term (days–weeks) ISP policy changes or high-profile deliverability outages can swing inbox placement and revenue recognition; in the medium term (6–18 months) regulatory pushback on behavioral tracking or new privacy features could blunt the need for email analytics, reversing willingness-to-pay. Monitor three catalysts that could flip the trade quickly: major ISP policy statements, large-scale DMARC/BIMI certification rollouts, and quarterly commentary from top ESPs on pricing or contract churn.

Second-order effects matter for adjacent equities: payment to certified delivery partners will raise CAC for smaller merchants and steer them to platform bundles (Shopify/Intuit/CRM suites), increasing platform stickiness and reducing churn. That creates a bifurcation: a few tech platforms widen margins while a long tail of retailers either consolidate or exit — a dynamic that can be exploited via selective long picks on delivery/identity SaaS and short exposure to marginal e-commerce operators that lack scale.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long SINCH.ST (Sinch) — 6–12 month horizon. Rationale: ownership of a scaled delivery asset positions the company to monetize deliverability SLAs and cross-sell into existing messaging contracts. Trade: buy shares or buy 12–18 month calls; target +40–80% if visible ARPU/contract uplifts; cut 25% if integration metrics or ARR growth miss for two quarters.
• Long TWLO (Twilio) — 3–9 month horizon. Rationale: SendGrid exposure makes Twilio a levered play on enterprises paying up for reliable transactional delivery and analytics. Trade: buy TWLO shares or a 6–12 month call spread to cap premium; expected asymmetric payoff if enterprise re-prices for inbox guarantees. Hedge: if TWLO underperforms revenue guidance, reduce position.
• Long ZS (Zscaler) — 6–12 month horizon via call spread. Rationale: increasing demand for email authentication and inbox protection should expand enterprise security budgets toward cloud-delivered prevention, benefiting SaaS security vendors. Trade: buy near-dated calls and sell higher strikes to fund cost; target 20–50% upside, stop if security deal cycles lengthen beyond two quarters.
• Long CRM (Salesforce) / short a marginal e-commerce retailer (select names with >40% email-driven promo revenue) — 9–18 month horizon. Rationale: CRM/platforms will capture higher spend for certified delivery and analytics while marginal retailers face rising CAC and margin compression. Trade: 60/40 notional split in favor of CRM; take profits on pair if platform ARPU growth lags or retailer digital investment accelerates unexpectedly.