National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Selling Prices of Commercial Residential Buildings in 70 Large and Medium-Sized Cities Decreased MoM Overall in November

China's housing market weakened in November across 70 large and medium-sized cities, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting MoM declines in new-home prices of 0.4% in first-tier cities (Shanghai +0.1%, Beijing -0.5%, Guangzhou -0.5%, Shenzhen -0.9%), -0.3% in second-tier and -0.4% in third-tier cities, while existing-home prices fell 1.1% MoM in first-tier cities (Beijing -1.3%, Shanghai -0.8%, Guangzhou -1.2%, Shenzhen -1.0%) and about -0.6% in second- and third-tier cities. Year-on-year falls widened across the board — new homes in first-tier cities -1.2% YoY (Shanghai an outlier at +5.1%), new second- and third-tier -2.2% and -3.5% YoY, and existing homes in first-, second- and third-tier cities down 5.8%, 5.6% and 5.8% YoY respectively — signalling broadening downside in prices that poses continued downside risk to developers, property-linked credit and local fiscal revenue, and could weigh on domestic demand and broader economic momentum.

Analysis

The National Bureau of Statistics reported nationwide weakening in housing prices in November 2025: new commercial residential prices in first-tier cities fell 0.4% month-on-month (widening 0.1ppt), with Shanghai +0.1% and Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen at -0.5%, -0.5% and -0.9% respectively, while new-home prices in second- and third-tier cities declined 0.3% and 0.4% MoM (narrowing 0.1ppt). Existing-home prices weakened more sharply: first-tier existing prices dropped 1.1% MoM (widening 0.2ppt) with Beijing -1.3%, Shanghai -0.8%, Guangzhou -1.2% and Shenzhen -1.0%, and second-/third-tier existing prices fell 0.6% MoM (third-tier narrowing 0.1ppt).

Year-on-year comparisons show a broadening downturn: new homes in first-tier cities were down 1.2% YoY (widening 0.4ppt) even as Shanghai stood out with +5.1% YoY, while new second- and third-tier prices fell 2.2% and 3.5% YoY. Existing residential prices deteriorated more steeply across the board—first-tier -5.8% YoY (widening 1.4ppt) with Beijing -6.8%, Shanghai -4.6%, Guangzhou -7.2% and Shenzhen -4.8%—and second-/third-tier existing prices were down 5.6% and 5.8% YoY (widenings reported).

The data signal broadening downside that elevates credit and revenue risk for developers and property-linked borrowers and could weigh on local fiscal receipts and domestic demand; market sentiment is moderately negative given the uniform YoY deterioration. Investors should treat the Shanghai new-home outperformance as a local divergence rather than proof of a national rebound and focus on incoming monthly price momentum and city-level dispersion to gauge whether declines stabilize or accelerate.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Trim or avoid direct exposure to Chinese property developers and high-yield property-linked credit given broadening MoM and YoY declines (existing homes -5.8% YoY in first-tier; new homes down across tiers),
• Reduce or hedge bank and regional-government-linked credit exposure proportionate to known property-loan concentrations because sustained existing-home price falls (second-/third-tier -5.6% and -5.8% YoY) can pressure asset quality and local fiscal revenue,
• Monitor the next NBS monthly release and city-level divergences—notably Shanghai's new-home +5.1% YoY outlier versus widespread weakness—and re-scale positions only if MoM declines narrow consistently and YoY deterioration stops widening