Tim Cook is stepping down. What happens to Apple now?

The key issue is not the CEO transition itself but the regime shift in how Apple will be managed. A hardware-led CEO is likely to prioritize product cadence, vertical integration, and margin defense, which is constructive for gross margin stability but potentially less flexible in navigating a more hostile regulatory environment. That matters because the next 12-24 months are likely to be defined by whether Apple can preserve its platform rent while absorbing a higher compliance burden and weakening control over distribution economics.

The second-order dynamic is that any erosion in the Services take-rate has asymmetric effects on valuation. Apple can absorb a lot of hardware cyclicality, but a small change in App Store economics flows directly into high-margin earnings and sentiment around the durability of the ecosystem multiple. If Ternus is perceived as more execution-oriented and less “policy-savvy” than Cook, the market may apply a governance discount until he proves he can defend the moat in Washington and in courtrooms, not just in product launches.

The contrarian view is that succession risk may be overemphasized relative to the business’s inertia. Apple’s operating system, installed base, and purchasing power create a multi-year buffer, and a hardware-centric operator could actually improve capital allocation by keeping the company focused on differentiated devices rather than speculative adjacent bets. The real inflection is not September; it is whether legal/regulatory rulings over the next 2-6 quarters force Apple to reprice the economics of its ecosystem and thereby compress the stock’s premium multiple.