2 Popular Cryptos to Sell Before They Plummet

The piece warns that Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have no meaningful utility and face structural supply and demand problems: Dogecoin has an uncapped, continuously inflating supply that requires ongoing new demand to avoid dilution, while Shiba Inu’s burn mechanisms are unreliable and its Shibarium L2 shows negligible economic use (reported chain revenue of $2 on Jan. 20). Against a backdrop of potential geopolitical-driven market turbulence, the author advises investors to sell meme-coin holdings rather than treat them as credible stores of capital.

Analysis

Market structure: Meme coins (DOGE, SHIB) are net losers — unlimited DOGE issuance creates a perpetual dilution tailwind while SHIB’s burns and Shibarium activity ($2 revenue on Jan 20) are functionally immaterial. Winners are custody/exchange operators (e.g., NDAQ, trading fee capture) and large-cap liquid crypto (BTC, ETH) that become safer relative stores of value; flows will favor USD, 7–10y USTs and gold in risk-off bouts. Options vols on retail-facing tokens should spike during geopolitical shocks, increasing hedging costs.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a regulatory delisting/enforcement wave (SEC/ESMA) that could cut retail liquidity overnight, or a concentrated social-media pump causing short squeezes; probability low-medium but impact high. Immediate (days) risk is sentiment-driven flash sells; short-term (weeks–months) risk is structural dilution for DOGE and lack of real demand for SHIB; long-term (≥12 months) requires demonstrable utility adoption or token burns >5–10% of supply to stabilize price. Hidden dependencies: leveraged perpetuals, exchange inventories and custodial APY promotions can mask outflows until a liquidity shock.

Trade implications: Direct plays — opportunistic short DOGE via futures or defined-risk 3-month put spreads sized to 0.5–1% NAV targeting 20–40% downside; similar but smaller short on SHIB given lower liquidity. Pair trade — long NVDA (NVDA) or NFLX (NFLX) as quality risk-on replacements: consider 1–2% NAV long NVDA on pullback >8% with 12–24 month horizon. Hedging — buy 30–90 day VIX call spreads (size 1–2% NAV) or increase 7–10y UST exposure (IEF/TLT) by 2–4% to protect against systemic liquidity shocks.

Contrarian angles: The consensus underestimates low-probability positive protocol changes (coordinated large burns, sudden Shibarium adoption via a major dApp) that would produce sharp squeezes; these are unlikely but not impossible and create asymmetric short risk. Historical parallel: 2017 ICO/2018 crash showed fast destruction of value but also rapid, brief rebounds; therefore maintain small, size-constrained shorts and capital ready to redeploy if macro stabilizes and risk assets rally sharply.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 0.5–1.0% NAV defined-risk short on DOGE via 3-month put spread (strike width sized to limit loss to 0.5% NAV); target a 20–40% DOGE fall within 1–3 months and cut losses if DOGE rises >15% from entry.
• Trim any portfolio DOGE/SHIB exposure >2% of NAV down to 0.5% within 7 days; redeploy proceeds: 1–2% NAV into NVDA (NVDA) shares or 9–12 month LEAP calls on a pullback >8% and 1–3% NAV into 7–10y USTs (IEF/TLT) as defensive ballast.
• Implement a 1–2% NAV hedge using 30–90 day VIX call spreads (or buy 1–2% NAV of put protection on broad equity ETFs) to protect against crypto-driven liquidity shocks; reassess after 60–90 days or following any regulatory announcements.
• Initiate a pair trade: short SHIB spot/futures sized at 0.25–0.5% NAV and simultaneously go long 0.5% NAV ETH (ETH) or BTC (BTC) spot for 3 months to capture relative value convergence; unwind if SHIB on-chain burns exceed 5% of circulating supply or Shibarium daily revenue sustainably >$10k.