Eric Baker’s long, winding road to taking StubHub public

StubHub completed its public debut, with shares closing 6% below the $23.50 IPO price, valuing the company at over $7 billion, despite a complex history including CEO Eric Baker's reacquisition of the company for $4.05 billion in 2019 and a significant rebound from a COVID-19-induced revenue collapse. The live events ticket reseller reported a 10% revenue increase to $397.6 million in Q1 2025, highlighting its recovery and providing a liquidity event for major investors such as Madrone (24.5%), WestCap (12.3%), and Bessemer (8.8%).

Analysis

StubHub's public debut was met with a tepid market reception, as its shares closed 6% below the $23.50 IPO price, establishing a valuation slightly above $7 billion. This valuation, however, represents a significant markup from the $4.05 billion price CEO Eric Baker and his backers paid to acquire the company from eBay in 2019, highlighting substantial value creation for its key investors like Madrone Partners (24.5% stake) and WestCap (12.3% stake). The company's fundamentals demonstrate notable resilience, having navigated a near-total revenue collapse during the COVID-19 pandemic to achieve a strong post-pandemic rebound. This recovery is evidenced by a 10% year-over-year revenue increase to $397.6 million in the first quarter of 2025, fueled by high-profile live events. The narrative of the CEO's perseverance, combined with solid recent growth, contrasts with the weak first-day trading performance, suggesting market uncertainty about its future trajectory or valuation.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should weigh the weak initial public offering performance against the company's solid underlying fundamentals, specifically the 10% Q1 revenue growth, which may signal a potential valuation disconnect and entry point for those bullish on the live events sector.
• Monitor for potential stock price volatility related to the significant ownership stakes held by private equity and venture capital firms, as the expiration of lock-up periods could lead to substantial selling pressure.
• Given the company's history of collapsing revenue during the pandemic, investors must consider the high sensitivity of the business model to macroeconomic conditions, discretionary consumer spending, and the cyclicality of the live entertainment calendar.