10 things to watch in the stock market Thursday including inflation data and Oracle

Stocks are poised for a lower open amid President Trump's tariff threats and mixed economic data; the producer price index was cooler than expected, while continuing jobless claims hit their highest level since November 2021. Oracle shares are nearing all-time highs after a strong earnings report with cloud services revenue jumping 27%, leading to numerous analyst price target increases, while Wedbush upped its price target on Oklo after a deal with the Department of Defense. Conversely, Boeing and its suppliers are under pressure following news of an Air India 787-8 Dreamliner crash, and Bank of America downgraded Conagra Brands due to concerns about commodity inflation and limited pricing power.

Analysis

The market is set for a lower open, reflecting investor caution stemming from President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats and a mixed economic backdrop where the S&P 500 has broken a three-session winning streak and the dollar index fell approximately 1%. May's producer price index came in cooler than anticipated at 0.1% month-over-month against a 0.2% estimate, while initial jobless claims were stable at 248,000; however, continuing jobless claims surged to 1.96 million, their highest since November 2021, signaling potential labor market weakening. This uncertain environment (overall sentiment: -0.1, mixed) is further contextualized by an upcoming $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction, following a reportedly 'strong' 10-year auction, amidst discussions around the Trump administration's tax bill. Specific company developments show divergent paths: Oracle (ORCL) shares are nearing all-time highs after reporting a beat on sales and earnings, significantly lifting its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook with cloud services revenue jumping 27% to $6.74 billion, leading to widespread analyst price target increases (ORCL sentiment: 0.9). Nuclear technology firm Oklo (OKLO) received a price target hike to $75 from $55 by Wedbush following a Department of Defense agreement for a reactor in Alaska, aligning with a perceived Trump administration focus on nuclear for AI needs (OKLO sentiment: 0.8). Similarly, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) was named a top idea by Evercore ISI with its price target raised to $289 from $237 due to expected fundamental improvements in its automotive and telecom markets (NXPI sentiment: 0.7). The AI theme continues with Meta Platforms (META) hiring from Google's DeepMind for its 'superintelligence' division after a $14.8 billion investment for a 49% stake in Scale AI (META sentiment: 0.6), and Microsoft (MSFT) reportedly developing a Copilot AI system for the Pentagon (MSFT sentiment: 0.7). Conversely, Boeing (BA) shares are under pressure, along with its suppliers, after an Air India 787-8 Dreamliner crashed post-takeoff, with the cause yet undetermined (BA sentiment: -0.7). Conagra Brands (CAG) faces a downgrade to underperform from Bank of America, with its price target cut to $20 from $27, citing commodity inflation on proteins and limited pricing power for its frozen meal products (CAG sentiment: -0.7). GE Vernova (GEV), with its nuclear business, is noted in the context of the broader nuclear energy push for AI, maintaining a neutral sentiment (0.0).

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should adopt a cautious approach to the broader market, considering the impact of tariff rhetoric, the dollar's 1% decline, and concerning signals from continuing jobless claims, while closely watching the upcoming 30-year Treasury auction.
• Evaluate opportunities in specific technology and AI-focused companies such as Oracle (ORCL) for its strong cloud growth and outlook, Oklo (OKLO) for its strategic defense contract and nuclear-AI nexus, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) for its positive fundamental outlook, and Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) for their continued AI advancements, while being mindful of valuations after recent gains.
• Re-evaluate exposure to Boeing (BA) pending further details on the 787-8 crash investigation and its operational implications, and consider reducing positions in Conagra Brands (CAG) due to margin pressures from commodity inflation and limited pricing power highlighted by the analyst downgrade.
• Monitor the strategic implications of increased governmental focus on nuclear energy for AI infrastructure, which could benefit companies like Oklo (OKLO) and potentially GE Vernova (GEV), as this appears to be an emerging investment theme.