Soybeans Extending Pop Higher on Thursday Morning

Soybean futures posted strong gains on Wednesday, advancing 18-19 cents across nearby contracts, and are extending the rally on Thursday morning, driven by significant new buying interest reflected in an 8,888 contract increase in preliminary open interest. The market is also supported by a USDA-reported export sale of 120,000 MT for the 2025/26 marketing year and robust analyst expectations for upcoming export sales, alongside higher Chinese import estimates for July, signaling firm global demand.

Analysis

Soybean futures are demonstrating renewed strength, with nearby contracts rallying 18 to 19 cents and extending gains in subsequent trading. This upward price movement is technically supported by a significant 8,888 contract increase in preliminary open interest, indicating fresh buying capital entering the market rather than mere short-covering, while the $10 price level is acting as a firm support. The bullish sentiment is fundamentally underpinned by solid demand indicators, including a USDA-reported export sale of 120,000 MT for the 2025/26 marketing year and strong import estimates from China, which projects July arrivals to increase to 10.5 MMT from 9.85 MMT a year ago. The positive momentum is broad-based, with related soymeal futures rising $2.20/ton and soy oil gaining 20 to 24 points, confirming strength across the entire soy complex. Analyst expectations for the upcoming weekly export sales report are also robust, setting a firm baseline for near-term market performance.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the combination of new buying interest indicated by rising open interest and confirmed export demand, investors may consider maintaining or initiating long positions, using the $10 level as a key technical support marker.
• Traders should monitor the upcoming weekly export sales data, as a result within or exceeding the analyst consensus for new crop sales (400,000-900,000 MT) could serve as a primary catalyst for further price appreciation.
• The concurrent rally in soymeal and soy oil futures validates the underlying strength in the soy complex, suggesting investors should assess the entire complex for confirmation of the trend's durability.