Nucor Expects Strong Q2 Earnings on Steel Mills Segment Gains

Nucor (NUE) projects increased earnings across all segments for Q2 2025, with steel mills expected to drive the most growth due to higher average selling prices, leading to an EPS guidance of $2.55-$2.65 compared to $0.67 in Q1 2025 and $2.68 in Q2 2024. The company repurchased 1.8 million shares in Q2 and has returned $755 million to stockholders YTD via buybacks and dividends, while NUE stock has underperformed the industry over the past year, declining 18.2% versus a 25.9% industry decline.

Analysis

Nucor Corporation has issued positive guidance for its second quarter of 2025, projecting earnings per share (EPS) between $2.55 and $2.65. This forecast indicates a substantial sequential improvement from the 67 cents per share reported in the first quarter of 2025, and is comparable to the $2.68 per share earned in the second quarter of 2024. The company anticipates earnings growth across all three of its segments, with the steel mills segment expected to see the most significant uplift due to higher average selling prices. The steel products segment is also forecasted for a sequential earnings increase, supported by stable overall pricing, higher volumes, and lower average costs per ton, while the raw materials segment is likewise predicted to achieve increased earnings. Nucor's capital return strategy remains active, with approximately 1.8 million shares repurchased in the second quarter and a total of 4 million shares bought back year-to-date, contributing to approximately $755 million returned to stockholders in 2025 through share repurchases and dividend payments. Despite NUE stock declining 18.2% over the past year, this performance outpaced the industry's 25.9% decline, indicating relative resilience.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider the strong sequential earnings recovery projected for Q2 2025, driven by improvements across all segments, as a significant positive signal, while noting the guidance range of $2.55-$2.65 per share is slightly below the $2.68 earned in Q2 2024.
• Factor in Nucor's active share repurchase program and consistent dividend payments, totaling $755 million returned to shareholders year-to-date, as a key component of shareholder return and an indicator of management's confidence in the company's financial health.
• Monitor the sustainability of higher average selling prices in the steel mills segment and overall steel demand, as these are crucial for achieving the guided earnings, particularly given the stock's 18.2% decline over the past year and its current Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) status.