Apple’s September quarter earnings are coming after Thursday’s market close. Here’s what top analysts expect

Apple is poised to report fiscal Q4 earnings, with analysts broadly optimistic for solid results, projecting $1.77 EPS and $102.24 billion in revenue, reflecting strong year-over-year growth. Wall Street remains bullish, raising price targets due to robust iPhone 17 demand, sustained Services revenue expansion, and anticipated moderating tariff impacts. Despite prior weakness in iPad and wearables, the company's strong product cycle, including future AI-driven upgrades and the iPhone 18, underpins a positive outlook, contributing to Apple shares' recent 30% surge.

Analysis

Apple is anticipated to report strong fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, with LSEG analysts projecting $1.77 EPS and $102.24 billion in revenue, representing year-over-year growth of 7.9% and 7.7%, respectively. This follows a robust fiscal third quarter where revenue grew 10%, marking Apple's fastest quarterly growth since December 2021, and iPhone sales surged 13% annually, bolstered by strong performance in China. Tariff costs in Q3 were also managed below prior estimates.

Wall Street maintains a broadly bullish outlook on Apple, with 33 analysts rating it a "strong buy" or "buy," driven by expectations of continued iPhone 17 strength and robust Services revenue growth, which some analysts model at 13% year-over-year. Firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan anticipate an F4Q25 revenue and EPS beat, citing product strength and margin upsides from moderating tariff headwinds, despite recent declines in iPad and wearables revenue.

Analysts are particularly focused on Apple's future product cycles, including the anticipated AI upgrade cycle in CY26+ and the launch of the iPhone 18 foldable, which are expected to accelerate growth. The stock has reflected this optimism, soaring almost 30% in the past three months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. Investment banks have raised price targets, with Bank of America setting a high of $320, implying a 19% upside, underscoring belief in Apple's ecosystem, AI integration, and capital returns.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Apple's fiscal Q4 earnings report for confirmation of robust iPhone 17 sales and sustained Services revenue growth, which are central to the current bullish sentiment.
• Pay close attention to management's guidance for the December quarter and any forward-looking statements regarding AI integration and future product cycles like the iPhone 18, as these represent significant catalysts.
• Assess the impact of moderating tariff headwinds on gross margins and the continued strength of Apple's ecosystem and capital allocation strategies for long-term value creation.