Copernicus: 2025 on course to be joint-second warmest year, with November third-warmest on record

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S/ECMWF) reports 2025 is currently tied with 2023 as the second-warmest year on record and November 2025 was the third-warmest November globally, with the month 1.54°C above pre‑industrial levels and the 2023–2025 three‑year average likely to exceed 1.5°C for the first time; 2025 is expected to finish as the second- or third‑warmest year. Regional observations include pronounced warmth over northern Canada, the Arctic and parts of Europe (Europe’s November was its fifth-warmest and autumn its fourth-warmest), persistently high sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific and Norwegian Sea, Arctic sea‑ice extent 12% below average (second lowest for November) and Antarctic sea ice 7% below average. Hydrological extremes were widespread—tropical cyclones and monsoon-related flooding in South and Southeast Asia caused catastrophic flooding and more than 1,100 deaths, while parts of Europe, North America, Africa and Australia saw anomalously wet or dry conditions and ongoing drought warnings in southeastern Europe—findings C3S says reflect an accelerating pace of climate change and underline the need for rapid greenhouse‑gas reductions.

Analysis

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S/ECMWF) reports 2025 is currently tied with 2023 as the second‑warmest year on record and that November 2025 was the third‑warmest November globally with an average surface air temperature of 14.02°C, 0.65°C above the 1991–2020 November average. November 2025 registered 1.54°C above the 1850–1900 pre‑industrial baseline and the 2023–2025 three‑year average is likely to exceed 1.5°C for the first time, while 2025 is expected to finish as the second‑ or third‑warmest year, behind 2024.

Regional data show concentrated impacts: European land averaged 5.74°C in November (+1.38°C versus 1991–2020) with autumn at +1.06°C, Arctic sea‑ice extent in November was 12% below average (second lowest) and Antarctic sea ice 7% below average, while mean sea surface temperature over 60°S–60°N was 20.42°C (fourth‑highest for November). The North Pacific and Norwegian Sea experienced much‑above‑average SSTs while the equatorial Pacific shifted toward ENSO‑neutral/weak La Niña conditions.

Hydrological extremes were pronounced: Storm Claudia and other systems produced heavy European rainfall patterns, drought warnings persisted in southeastern Europe, and tropical cyclones/monsoon rains in South and Southeast Asia caused catastrophic flooding and more than 1,100 fatalities. The accompanying signal outputs show moderately negative sentiment (score −0.55) and a modest market‑impact score (0.35), implying elevated concern about physical risk, insurance losses and accelerated ESG/policy responses that could drive capital reallocation.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reassess and where appropriate hedge or reduce net exposure to climate‑sensitive sectors such as (re)insurance, agriculture, coastal real estate and utilities given rising physical risk and recent extreme‑weather losses
• Increase allocations or due diligence on climate‑resilience and adaptation plays (flood defenses, water management, resilient infrastructure and reinsurance capacity) where returns compensate for deployment and construction risk
• Integrate Copernicus/ERA5 near‑real‑time datasets into portfolio stress tests and risk models and monitor ENSO evolution (weak La Niña) for short‑term commodity and crop price sensitivity
• Monitor EU and global policy signals closely—three‑year averages exceeding 1.5°C increase the likelihood of stricter emissions and adaptation regulation that could accelerate repricing in high‑carbon and exposed assets