Invitation to presentation of the first quarter 2026 results

Tele2 will publish Q1 2026 results on Wednesday, 22 April 2026 at 07:00 CEST (06:00 BST, 01:00 EDT). Management presentation will be hosted by CEO Jean Marc Harion and EVP Group CFO Peter Landgren; a webcast and English-language teleconference will follow at 09:00 CEST (08:00 BST, 03:00 EDT).

Analysis

The upcoming quarter will function as a high-sensitivity probe of Tele2’s operational leverage: small moves in churn, ARPU or wholesale roaming can translate to outsized EPS delta because fixed costs in RAN and spectrum amortization are lumpy. Expect management commentary to move markets more than line-item beats — directional comments on 5G build pacing, fibre partnerships and MVNO contract renewals will re-rate consensus within days.

Second-order winners/losers are non-obvious: if Tele2 signals renewed emphasis on fixed–mobile bundling and enterprise IoT, regional fibre ISPs and MVNOs will see incremental pressure while Ericsson/Nokia could see order-book visibility improve, shifting relative supplier valuations over the next 3–12 months. Conversely, any sign of sustained ARPU erosion or promotional pricing will disproportionately hurt smaller regional competitors who lack scale to fund equivalent network upgrades, concentrating market share to the incumbents.

Tail risks include regulatory moves (spectrum/license fines or tougher roaming rules), SEK volatility and an unexpected capex reset; these reverse points operate on a 1–12 month horizon. The contrarian angle: consensus often discounts B2B and wholesale margin resilience in telecom reporting seasons — if Tele2 reports stable enterprise trends, price action could be larger and more persistent than headline consumer metrics imply.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Buy a volatility play: Purchase a near-term TEL2 B straddle (1–2 weeks post-release) to capture a potential >8–12% directional move; cap premium paid at portfolio-level (max loss = premium), take 50% profits at a 20% implied move and trim remainder at 35%.
• Event-pair: Enter a 3-month equal-notional pair long TEL2 B / short TLSN to express a relative-operational recovery view (long Tele2’s mobile ARPU rebound vs Telia’s slower enterprise exposure). Target asymmetric return: +15–25% if Tele2 beats operational commentary; set stop-loss at -8% realized divergence.
• Supplier conditional: Allocate a tactical 6–12 month long position in ERIC (or NOK exposure) sized to portfolio risk if Tele2 signals capex acceleration during the call; reward is improved supplier order visibility, tail risk is a capex cut — size position small (~1–2% NAV) until confirmation.
• Event protection: If portfolio is heavy Sweden telecom exposure, buy 1–3 month put protection on TEL2 B sized to cover 30–50% of exposure ahead of the release; acceptable as insurance if management tone could surprise negative — cost is insurance premium vs balance-sheet downside containment.