Macro Matters: US and Canada Monetary Policy Recap and Outlook

A Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, featuring economists Stuart Paul, Ira Jersey, and Will Hoffman, analyzed the monetary policy outlook for the US and Canada, discussing takeaways from recent Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada meetings. The discussion covered future yield trajectories, the conclusion of the Fed's asset runoff program and subsequent balance sheet strategy, and the impact of political influence on policy. Notably, Stuart Paul stated that the next Fed chair is unlikely to alter expectations for the terminal rate this cycle.

Analysis

Bloomberg Intelligence's "Macro Matters" podcast, featuring economists Stuart Paul, Ira Jersey, and Will Hoffman, offered a forward-looking analysis of US and Canadian monetary policy as of October 2025. A key takeaway from Stuart Paul suggests that a change in the Federal Reserve chair is unlikely to alter expectations for the terminal rate this cycle, signaling potential continuity in the Fed's interest rate trajectory.

The discussion comprehensively covered recent Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada meeting takeaways, projecting future yield trajectories across both economies. This broad scope underscores the interconnectedness of North American monetary policy and its implications for fixed income markets.

Analysts also addressed the upcoming Canadian federal budget, the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s asset runoff program, and subsequent balance sheet policy. The potential impact of political influence on monetary policy was also discussed, highlighting non-economic factors that could shape future decisions.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor Federal Reserve communications for details on balance sheet policy post-asset runoff, as this will influence long-term liquidity and rates.
• Consider the implications of anticipated stability in the Fed's terminal rate for fixed income portfolio duration and yield curve positioning.
• Evaluate the upcoming Canadian federal budget and Bank of Canada policy statements for cross-border investment opportunities and currency implications, especially given the acknowledged political influence on policy.