Six months after President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were enacted on April 2nd, which prompted widespread fears of a global trade collapse and a 90% probability of a U.S. recession by Apollo's Torsten Slok, global trade has surprisingly remained resilient. The article suggests these tariffs have not achieved their intended disruptive impact on international commerce, contrary to initial market and economic forecasts.
Why Donald Trump’s tariffs are failing to break global trade Six months on from “Liberation Day”, things look surprisingly rosy On April 2nd President Donald Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs, holding a board covered in figures showing just how unfairly the world treated America. The numbers were nonsense, but the message was clear: the age of free trade was over. Markets shuddered, America’s allies fumed and economists predicted catastrophe. Torsten Slok of Apollo, a private-markets giant, put the odds of a tariff-driven recession in America at 90%. Already have an account?Log in Continue with a free trial Get full access to our independent journalism for free Get startedExplore more The most dangerous corner of a balance-sheet Forget debt. Here is something to villainise Welcome to Zero Migration America Closed borders will make the country smaller, poorer and less innovative Don’t tax wealth Even the most sophisticated arguments in favour of doing so make no sense Credit markets look increasingly dangerous A pair of bankruptcies highlight the risks How the Trump administration learned to love foreign aid America’s international assistance has not been destroyed—it has been transformed The eccentric investment strategy that beats the rest Introducing the 25/25/25/25 portfolio On April 2nd, President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were enacted, leading to significant market apprehension and dire economic forecasts. Economists predicted catastrophe, with Torsten Slok of Apollo, a private-markets giant, assigning a 90% probability to a tariff-driven recession in the United States. However, six months following these protectionist measures, global trade has shown surprising resilience, with the article noting that "things look surprisingly rosy." This outcome directly contradicts initial market shuddering and the widespread expectation of severe economic disruption. The observed resilience suggests that the tariffs have, thus far, failed to achieve their intended disruptive impact on international commerce. This challenges the prevalent assumption that such trade barriers would immediately lead to a breakdown in global supply chains and economic activity. This situation implies a greater underlying robustness within global trade mechanisms than initially anticipated by many analysts and economists, warranting a re-evaluation of how markets incorporate trade policy risks.
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