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Market Impact: 0.8

India Trading Ban Rocks $149 Billion-a-Day Offshore Rupee Market

Currency & FXEmerging MarketsRegulation & LegislationBanking & LiquidityDerivatives & VolatilityMarket Technicals & FlowsMonetary Policy

India banned its banks from offering the most popular instrument for trading the rupee offshore, threatening to squeeze a $149 billion-a-day market as it seeks to shore up a tumbling currency. The move will likely tighten offshore rupee liquidity (notably NDF activity), raise FX volatility and curtail hedging capacity for corporates and foreign investors. Expect risk-off flows in EM FX, potential dislocations in global FX liquidity and knock-on pressure on EM asset prices.

Analysis

India banned its banks from offering the most popular instrument for trading the rupee offshore, threatening to squeeze a $149 billion-a-day market as it seeks to shore up a tumbling currency. The move will likely tighten offshore rupee liquidity (notably NDF activity), raise FX volatility and curtail hedging capacity for corporates and foreign investors. Expect risk-off flows in EM FX, potential dislocations in global FX liquidity and knock-on pressure on EM asset prices.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

strongly negative

Sentiment Score

-0.70