Ex-Dividend Reminder: Old Second Bancorp, Concentrix and Texas Instruments

Old Second Bancorp. (OSBC), Concentrix (CNXC) and Texas Instruments (TXN) go ex-dividend on 1/30/26; OSBC will pay $0.07 on 2/9/26, CNXC $0.36 on 2/10/26 and TXN $1.42 on 2/10/26. The payouts imply one-day price adjustments of roughly -0.35% (OSBC), -0.87% (CNXC) and -0.72% (TXN) versus the referenced share prices, and annualized yields of about 1.41% (OSBC), 3.46% (CNXC) and 2.89% (TXN). Intraday moves noted in the piece show OSBC down ~0.3%, CNXC down ~2.5% and TXN up ~0.1%, providing short-term price context but limited broader market impact.

Analysis

Market structure: The immediate mechanical impact is tiny — OSBC, CNXC, TXN should gap roughly 0.35%, 0.87%, 0.72% on ex-dividend — but the signal matters more for holder base. TXN’s steady ~2.9% yield + buybacks favors income/secular tech allocators and preserves pricing power in semi capex cycles; CNXC’s 3.46% yield and recent price softness signals cyclical client-spend vulnerability; regional OSBC is rate-sensitive and benefits only if net interest margins remain elevated.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include dividend cuts (CNXC/OSBC higher risk) and a sudden capex collapse that dents TXN’s order book; quantify triggers — a 10% QoQ revenue miss for CNXC or two consecutive quarters of falling gross margin for TXN would be regime-changing. Near-term (days) expect only ex-divido mechanical moves and option early-exercise flows; medium-term (weeks–months) watch earnings and Fed rate guidance; long-term (quarters) follow free-cash-flow trends and buyback cadence.

Trade implications: Prefer asymmetric long TXN conviction for cash-flow plus buyback optionality and sell covered calls to enhance yield; avoid dividend-capture in OSBC due to low absolute payout and bank-rate sensitivity. CNXC is a tactical short candidate into earnings if client-spend guidance weakens; use pair trades to isolate cyclicality (long TXN, short CNXC) and use options to define risk.

Contrarian angles: Consensus understates capital-return optionality in TXN — if buybacks accelerate the true shareholder yield can beat peers even with a sub-3% cash yield. Conversely, the market may be underestimating a CNXC cut if corporate IT spending lags; ex-dividend volatility creates cheap near-term option hedges that are often mispriced around these dates.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–4% long position in TXN within 3 weeks; scale in if price drops >3% from today or if forward yield exceeds 3.25%. Hedge with 1–2% portfolio allocation to 3–6 week 3–5% OTM puts to cap downside.
• Sell 4–6 week covered calls on TXN (strike ~+3–5% out) to monetize income; target collected premium >= quarterly dividend to improve effective yield by ~100% on covered shares.
• Open a tactical 1–2% short on CNXC if next-quarter revenue or guidance misses by >=2% or if price breaks below the 50-day MA with volume; size stop at +4% adverse move and pair with a long TXN to neutralize market beta.
• Avoid dividend-capture trades in OSBC; instead reduce exposure to regional-bank names by 1–3% if 2-week moving average of 2yr/10yr spread compresses by >10bps (signals margin pressure).
• If concerned about broader volatility, buy 2–3% notional of month+1 at-the-money protective puts on the semiconductors ETF (SMH) as a hedge for a concentrated TXN long; unwind if SMH falls >6% (realized hedge used) or after 60 days.