Noteworthy Tuesday Option Activity: SPGI, CORZ, MCD

Large options activity hit Core Scientific and McDonald's today: CORZ traded 59,270 contracts (≈5.9 million underlying shares), about 47.7% of its one‑month average daily volume, driven by 12,563 contracts in the Feb 20, 2026 $17 call (≈1.3M shares). MCD saw 14,785 contracts (≈1.5 million underlying shares), about 47.2% of its one‑month average daily volume, led by 876 contracts in the Feb 20, 2026 $340 call (≈87.6k shares). The concentrated call flow ahead of the Feb 20, 2026 expirations could indicate directional positioning or hedging activity and merits monitoring for potential spot price impact.

Analysis

Market structure: The outsized options flow (CORZ calls = ~47.7% of ADTV; MCD calls = ~47.2% of ADTV) implies large directional positioning and dealer delta-hedging pressure that can mechanically lift underlying prices in the near term (days–weeks). Winners are option buyers and liquidity-providing desks that can collect hedging gains; losers are short sellers facing gamma squeeze risk and passive funds with limited intra-day liquidity. This is particularly acute for CORZ where 59k contracts = ~5.9M shares, a meaningful fraction of the float in active sessions, so price moves can be non-fundamental and momentum-driven.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a regulatory or energy-cost shock to crypto-miners (CORZ) that could wipe >50% of equity value quickly, and macro slowdown hitting MCD traffic and margins. Immediate (days) risk is a dealer unwind/expiry squeeze around Feb 20, 2026; short-term (weeks–months) risk is IV repricing; long-term (quarters) fundamentals (BTC price, consumer spending) dominate. Hidden dependencies: structured-product hedging, block-reward dynamics (for miners), and index-rebalance flows can create second-order liquidity shocks.

Trade implications: For CORZ, asymmetric option structures that limit downside (long-dated call spreads) capitalize on dealer-driven upside while capping premium; for MCD, modest directional exposure via buy-writes or OTM call spreads captures steady cash-flow story without funding large theta risk. Cross-asset: monitor BTC, power prices and short-interest in miner cohort for correlation-driven pairs. Execute before gamma decay accelerates in last 30–60 days to avoid premium compression.

Contrarian angles: The market may be mistaking temporary dealer-induced demand for durable buying — a material unwind post-expiry is plausible and could retrace 20–40%. Heavy call flow may be structured-sell hedging (synthetic longs) that neutralize spot exposure at expiry; if so, upside is limited. Historical parallel: concentrated option-led squeezes often reverse on expiry week; plan exits around Feb 20, 2026 and stress-test for a 30% abrupt reversion.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 1.5% notional position in CORZ using a Feb-20-2026 $17/$25 call spread (long $17, short $25) to capture upside from dealer delta-hedging while capping premium; size risk so a full loss equals 1.5% portfolio. Take profits if CORZ > $25 before Dec 31, 2025; cut the spread if CORZ falls >30% within 30 days.
• Initiate a 0.75% position in MCD via a Feb-20-2026 $340/$380 call spread or buy 0.75% equity on a pullback of 3–5%; target 20–30% return or hold through 2026 earnings cadence, stop-loss -15% from entry. If MCD trades >5% above strike and IV compresses, consider selling covered calls to harvest premium.