First Week of PCH January 2026 Options Trading

PotlatchDeltic (PCH) option ideas: selling the Jan 2026 $35 put at $0.60 nets a potential effective purchase price of $34.40 versus the $39.53 spot (strike ~11% discount) with a current modelled 79% probability of expiring worthless, implying a 1.71% absolute return (11.17% annualized) if it does. Alternatively, selling a covered Jan 2026 $40 call at $1.45 against stock bought at $39.53 would cap upside at $40 but deliver a 4.86% total return to expiration (3.67% premium boost if the call expires worthless; 55% modeled chance), and risks leaving material upside on the table if shares rally. Implied vols are 38% on the put and 33% on the call versus a trailing 12‑month realized volatility of 29%, suggesting option premiums are pricing higher forward uncertainty; StockOptionsChannel will publish odds and contract charts on its site.

Analysis

The article outlines two PCH option strategies with specific pricing and modeled odds. Selling the Jan 2026 $35 put at a $0.60 bid implies an effective purchase price of $34.40 versus the $39.53 spot, the strike is ~11% out-of-the-money and the analytics model a 79% probability the put will expire worthless, which would yield a 1.71% return on the cash commitment (11.17% annualized, before commissions).

A covered-call alternative is buying PCH at $39.53 and selling the Jan 2026 $40 call at $1.45, which produces a 4.86% total return if assigned at $40 and a 3.67% premium cushion (23.91% annualized) if the call expires worthless; the modelled probability of the call expiring worthless is 55%, implying a ~45% chance of assignment into $40.00.

Implied volatilities are 38% on the put and 33% on the call versus a 29% trailing 12-month realized volatility, indicating option premiums are pricing higher forward uncertainty and a steeper put premium (relative downside concern). Investors should note these are modeled odds, track changes (StockOptionsChannel will publish charts), and account for commissions and assignment risk when sizing positions.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider selling the Jan 2026 $35 put only if comfortable owning PCH at an effective $34.40 and accepting the modeled ~21% assignment probability, account for commissions when sizing the trade
• If you prefer income with current equity exposure, consider buying PCH at $39.53 and selling the Jan 2026 $40 covered call to capture a 4.86% capped return to expiration but accept a ~45% chance of being called away
• Monitor implied vs realized volatility (put IV 38% > call IV 33% > realized 29%) and the StockOptionsChannel odds charts for shifts in forward risk that would materially change expected return profiles
• Size positions conservatively and consider hedges or staggered expirations if concerned about downside tail risk given elevated put IV and the multi-month time frame