Bitcoin price today: steadies near $78k as Hormuz tensions offset ceasefire relief

The first-order read is “risk-off,” but the more important second-order effect is regime bifurcation: energy shock probability is rising while crypto is being bid by a separate institutional-flow narrative. That matters because when macro stress is driven by the Strait of Hormuz, the market typically rewards real-asset cash flows and punishes duration/levered beta, but BTC can decouple if forced allocation flows and balance-sheet buyers dominate spot. The current setup is not a clean one-factor trade; it is a conflict between liquidity-sensitive risk assets and a commodity-linked inflation shock.

For equities, the main loser is anything with high energy intensity and weak pricing power: airlines, transports, chemicals, and consumer discretionary names with margin compression risk if oil stays elevated for several weeks. The second-order winner is not just upstream energy, but also infrastructure and defense procurement names that benefit from higher naval/security spending and accelerated hardened-route investments. If the shipping disruption persists, expect widening spreads in insurance, tanker rates, and defense electronics long before the broader market fully reprices the geopolitical premium.

On crypto, the institutional demand story can overpower headline risk in the near term, but the market is vulnerable to a “bad macro, good flow” squeeze unwind if real rates rise or equity vol stays elevated. The senate-legislation push is strategically important because it lowers the probability of U.S. regulatory fragmentation, which should compress the governance discount on listed crypto proxies over a 6-12 month horizon. The key contrarian point: the move in BTC may already be ahead of the fundamental improvement, while altcoins remain the cleaner way to express a risk-off with strong differentiation against the large-cap, balance-sheet-backed winners.