Sugar futures ticked higher Wednesday—March NY #11 up 1.48% and March London white up 1.01%—with a rally attributed to short-covering after the Brazilian real strengthened, which can deter Brazilian exports; NY sugar hit a two-week high and London a one-week high. However, the fundamental backdrop remains bearish as multiple agencies forecast larger 2025/26 crops: ISMA reports Indian Oct–Nov output +43% y/y to 4.11 MMT and raised India’s 2025/26 forecast to 31 MMT, Conab lifted Brazil’s 2025/26 estimate to 45 MMT while Unica shows rising Center‑South output, and the USDA, ISO and private forecasters (Czarnikow) project higher global production—USDA at a record 189.318 MMT and ending stocks rising to 41.188 MMT, ISO forecasting a 1.625 MMT surplus and Czarnikow an 8.7 MMT surplus. In sum, currency-driven short-term support and India’s 1.5 MMT export quota provide temporary price props, but widespread crop gains in India, Brazil and Thailand point to continued downside pressure on sugar prices unless demand strengthens.
March NY world sugar #11 rose +0.22 (+1.48%) and March London ICE white sugar #5 rose +4.30 (+1.01%) as NY hit a two-week high and London a one-week high, driven primarily by short-covering after the Brazilian real strengthened to a one-week high versus the dollar. The stronger real is reducing the near-term incentive for Brazilian exporters to ship sugar, creating temporary technical support despite recent weekly price weakness. Fundamental supply signals remain decisively bearish: ISMA reported India Oct–Nov production jumped +43% y/y to 4.11 MMT and raised its 2025/26 India forecast to 31 MMT, Conab lifted Brazil's 2025/26 estimate to 45 MMT, and Unica showed Center-South output up +8.7% y/y to 983 MT with cumulative output through mid-Nov at 39.179 MMT. Multi-source forecasts point to rising global stocks—ISO now expects a 1.625 MMT surplus, Czarnikow boosted its surplus to 8.7 MMT, and the USDA projects record 2025/26 production of 189.318 MMT with ending stocks at 41.188 MMT—while India’s food ministry allowing 1.5 MMT of exports is a limited offset. Implication: short-term rallies are likely to be volatile and currency-driven, but structural downside risk persists from larger crops in India, Brazil and Thailand and rising global ending stocks unless demand or ethanol diversion increases materially. Key near-term indicators to watch are the Brazilian real, ISMA and Unica production updates, actual Indian export volumes versus the 1.5 MMT quota, and subsequent USDA/Czarnikow revisions; an acceleration in exportable supplies would increase downward pressure on prices.
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