Wheat Closes Mixed on Thursday

Wheat futures reversed most overnight losses to finish mixed across exchanges—Chicago SRW down 2–4¢, Kansas City HRW up fractions to 2¢, and Minneapolis spring wheat down 1–2¢—after President Trump announced new reciprocal tariffs that exclude Mexico and Canada and keep USMCA-exempt goods untouched, while imposing tariffs on Japan (24%), South Korea (25%) and the Philippines (17%) effective April 9. USDA weekly export sales totaled 339,986 MT for the week ended March 27, a three-week high and above trade expectations, led by Ecuador (71,900 MT) and Japan (59,300 MT); new-crop sales were 95,242 MT in line with forecasts. Census data show February exports at 1.765 MMT (64.85 mbu), up 34% from January but down 4.5% year‑over‑year, bringing marketing-year exports through three quarters to 584 mbu (598 mbu including products), suggesting firm demand that helped limit price weakness despite mixed session closes.

Analysis

Wheat futures recovered most overnight weakness and closed mixed across exchanges; Chicago SRW futures finished down 2–4 cents, Kansas City HRW ended fractionally to 2 cents higher, and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 1–2 cents. May CBOT settled at $5.36 (down 3.25¢) and July at $5.50 (down 2.75¢), while May KCBT closed $5.69 (up 0.5¢) and May MGEX $5.91¼ (down 1.25¢), indicating modest intraday repositioning rather than a definitive trend.

President Trump’s tariff announcement excluded Mexico and Canada and preserved USMCA exemptions, but imposed reciprocal tariffs on Japan (24%), South Korea (25%) and the Philippines (17%) effective April 9. The exclusions keep North American trade channels intact, while new tariffs create a near‑term policy risk that could pressure demand from affected Asian buyers and increase volatility around the April 9 effective date.

USDA weekly export sales of 339,986 MT for the week ending March 27 exceeded trade ideas (-100k to +300k MT) and marked a three‑week high, led by Ecuador (71,900 MT) and Japan (59,300 MT); new‑crop sales were 95,242 MT within expectations. February Census exports were 1.765 MMT (64.85 mbu), up 34.37% from January but down 4.47% year‑over‑year, taking marketing‑year exports to 584 mbu (598 mbu incl. products), a demand profile that has capped downside despite mixed cash signals.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider maintaining a modest long or neutral exposure to U.S. wheat given firm weekly sales (339,986 MT) and resilient marketing‑year exports, but avoid large directional bets ahead of the April 9 tariff implementation
• Monitor weekly USDA export sales and monthly Census export data for shifts in purchases from Japan, South Korea and the Philippines—sustained declines from those buyers should prompt reducing exposure or tightening stops
• Use short‑dated option protection or modest hedges to guard against policy‑driven volatility around April 9, and consider favoring HRW/KCBT exposure if Kansas City continues to show relative basis strength